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8 wins, 3 losses, 1 tie: +6.52pts
round 3 2balls: Back Tim Herron to beat Fred Funk to win 1pt @1.926 at Pinnacle -won Funk has won this 2 ball by one shot in each of the past two days, so why go against him here? Well today they play Classic Club which is a considerably longer course than the others here. Funk's lack of distance off the tee could see him struggle here. Back Bernhard Langer to beat Rory Sabbatini to win 2pts @2.36 at Pinnacle -won I'm really not sure quite how Langer is made such a big outsider here. If it wasn't for Sabbatini's good recent form I would have Langer as favourite in this match up - over the past 12 months Langer leads 17-11 in round by round head to heads. Both have played well here before and I really see this as something of a coin toss, so these odds look very favourable. -------------------------------------------------------- round 2 2ball: Back Richard S. Johnson to beat John Huston to win 1pt @1.98 at FiveDimes -won Huston's 7 under was good enough to win this 2 ball yesterday, but Johnson wasn't far behind on 5 under and I think the price here is a bit of an overreaction. Huston had an incredibly hot putter yesterday, which may well be unsustainable today. He is often thought of as a player with a liking for easier courses, so his good showing yesterday shouldn't be a surprise as Bermuda Dunes is generally the easiest course they play on tour all year. La Quinta today though, which should be a bit of a tougher test going on yesterday's scoring. ----------------------------------------------------- round1 2balls: Back Billy Mayfair to beat Ryan Palmer to win 1pt @1.833 at Pinnacle -won Mayfair often seems to be a fast starter and got his season off to a solid start at the Sony last week. Palmer on the other hand was pretty woeful - finishing not far off last on 10 over par. There is an argument to fancy Palmer here as he has done well on birdie fest pro-am courses before (although in this event he has missed the cut on both prior visits). These two start at the new Classic Club course however, which if the talk is to be believed is quite a bit tougher than your standard pro-am fare, so any advantage Palmer has on easy courses could well be nullified here. Back Scott Verplank to beat Davis Love to win 1pt @2.2 at Pinnacle -won Love did recapture some form last season, but you still never quite know what you're going to get with him. Verplank is a very consistent player and has a good record in this event. These odds look quite generous here on what I see as more of an even matchup. Back Ted Purdy to beat Todd Hamilton to win 1pt @2.37 at Ladbrokes -lost Hamilton had a very poor start to the season at the Sony and this price looks well out of line. Back Carlos Franco to beat Jonathan Kaye to win 1pt @2.2 at Pinnacle -won Kaye has played well in this event before, but I think that has been factored a bit too heavily in to the price here. I see this as a pretty even contest so will take Franco at these odds against with ties pushing. Back Stephen Ames to beat Mike Weir to win 0.75pts @1.926 at FiveDimes -tie (void) Back Daniel Chopra to beat Mike Weir to win 0.75pts @2.5 at VCbet -lost Weir still seems to be being priced on reputation. Last week's missed cut hardly suggests to me that he's got his game sorted out and I will continue to oppose him until I see real evidence of a return to form. Back Mark Calcavecchia to beat Ben Curtis to win 1pt @1.8 at Centrebet -tie (lose) Calc has started the season off in good form and should be high in confidence returning to an event he has performed well at before. Curtis does occasionally throw in the odd good round, but normally he is pretty poor otherwise and it should just require a reasonable round from Calcavecchia here to beat him. Back Steve Elkington to beat Fred Funk to win 1pt @2.2 at Paddy Power (ties void) -won This is basically a price play as Funk shouldn't be as strong favourite as he had been made here.
-------------------------------------------------- round 1 2ball: Back Joe Ogilvie to beat Jason Gore to win 1pt @2.05 at Centrebet -- price now available at BetInternet -won Gore hasn't really found any sort of form at the start of this season - dead last at the Mercedes and a missed cut at the Sony. Ogilvie made a solid start to the season at the Sony and with his 2nd place last year definitely has the edge on event form. I can't see why he's been made the outsider in this matchup. |