FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Sabbatini 16th
Oberholser 15th
Watson 56th

While none of the three were ever in the midst of the leaderboard tussle, the two top were only four and five shots out of the winning score, so there certainly were chances of a payout. It was similarly the case with Watson in the top-10 market - he had been 17th with one round to play but had a horrible last round.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Rory Sabbatini to win 80/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Sabbatini has certainly started the season in form. He raced to the opening day lead in the Sony Open with a 65 and although he fell back to 8th in the second round, it was a very impressive performance to finish with a 62 and claim 2nd place behind Toms. And last week, in a format which should not suit one of the Tour's fastest players, he climbed into the top-10 over the weekend and stayed there. He started the 2002 in similar form with finishes of 8th, 15th, 5th and 2nd in four successive weeks - the 5th place finish was in this event - so there is optimism that he can continue his form in an event and on a course which is much more suited to his game.

Arron Oberholser to win 100/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Struggled with injury last season and missed the last three months following an elbow injury, but he returned to play well in the Pebble Beach event in the off-season and opened his season with a top-25 finish in the Sony Open. But it is now that the Tour has reached his home State of California that he should finish even higher. He has finishes of 4th and 6th in two of three visits to Torrey Pines and in the last two years in the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. That is a top-10 strike rate of 40% on the PGA Tour in California; when playing outside California, he has finished in the top-10 just 8% of his PGA Tour starts. That's quite a home preference and he should be worth following for the next few weeks.

Bubba Watson to finish in the top-ten 12/1 @ Stan James
It's very much early season, but Watson is the top-ranked player on Tour in terms of Scoring Average. He will certainly fall down that list as more events are played and Tiger Woods starts his season, but one list that he looks destined to remain on top is the driving distance chart. He currently leads that by over 18 yards! And given that the South Course has been lengthened to over 7600 yards, his length will be quite an advantage. He has proved that he is not just a player who would prosper on TPC courses as he travelled to Japan and Australia at the end of last year and played particularly well, including a playoff loss for the MasterCard Masters, so it was no surprise that he started the season so well. 150/1 is on offer each-way, but I'll take the top-10 place odds with Tiger Woods looking very difficult to beat this week.