Summary: Bets 5, Wins 2, Loss 4 Pts. Not a good week again, we are not catching our fair share of 50 M/U's in FP's which helps when you normally oppose, but its a long season and good and bad weeks will even out over the year.

Pre Round One Trades

Sell Luke Donald over Sean O’ Hair 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 19, Loss 2.75 Pts

Sell Luke Donald over Rod Pampling 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -25, Profit 8 Pts
This is a classic example of trading a bet where everything points to an easy win for the favourite but we are going in the opposite direction purely because the price over reflects his superiority. Both O’ Hair and Pampling have failed to make a cut this year in three attempts between them and have abysmal form round this course. Donald is playing for the first time in 06’ and has an average FP of 8 in four attempts at this venue. However, O’Hair and Pampling are both winners on this tour in the last 18 months which Donald isn’t. Luke is an overriding favourite to win both matches but the return for us if he doesn’t is too great to pass up.  

Sell Pat Perez over Bo Van Pelt 18H MB at 0 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.25 Pts
Perez was R1 leader last week after a 60 but fell away tamely to 73rd. Both players have very similar course form with one top 10 interspersed with some poor results. On long term form, Van Pelt makes 20% more cuts and Top 25 finishes than his fiery opponent. With a scoring average last year a half stroke better than Perez it could be argued Spreadex have posted the wrong favourite in this match

Buy Stewart Cink FP at 33 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 31, Loss 1 Pt

Cink comes into this event with a respectable 10^th at the Sony after a very poor 2005. No wins in the last year with only 4 Top 10s, 3 of which were very early in the year. A 10^th here two years ago suggests that a back to form Cink would be a contender in this event but at the price I feel it is worthy of trading.

Buy Jesper Parnevik FP at 35 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 12, Loss 11.5 Pts

This one is a bit of a mirror image of the Cink bet in that we have a player coming off a poor 2005 but with his recent event bringing a high placing and that he also has great form here in the past. Once again though its been reflected in the quote. Parnevik misses 1 in 3 cuts these days and his Top 25 % rate is poor at 1 in 4. Arguably he should be 37 to 38 in this field.