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FINAL RESULT Flesch (mc) was beaten by Baddeley Wilson beat Frazar by 4
Bets: 2 Wins: 1 Losses: 1 Profit/Loss = 0.00 pts
The strategy we've been employing this season has been, rather than take on the bookies, to take on the other punters. This involves waiting until the weight of money forces an over-reaction by the bookies in the cutting of odds and then backing the outsider at the value price. But with all the attention on the World Matchplay this week it was always going to be hard to find some value in this poor quality field.
Matchup bets: (All bets: Total Stake 2pts )
Steve Flesch to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ Paddy Power This looks to be a over-reaction to Baddeley's excellent previous form in this event. He does have finishes of 18-02-06 in this event, but in each of those years he entered the tournament in decent form. His current form this year reads 53-79-mc-51, so it's hard to justify such short odds on player who is woefully out of form. To take him on I've chosen Flesch who has the better current form, has shown a similar level of ability on this course (a 9th and 10th place finish in his two start) and has a far better h2h record (3-years: 27-20-2, 1-year: 6-7-1, 3-months: 2-1-0). Nice odds too.
Dean Wilson to beat Harrison Frazar +100 @ BlueSq This is a big price for someone who leads the h2h's 4-1-0 over the last 3-months. Frazar does seems to behitting form with a 19th place finish last week and although he finished in 53rd place the week before this was a decent attempt if you ignore his final round of 81. However, Wilson recent form is better with finishes of 10th, 60th (he did close with a round of 79) and last weeks 7th place finish. Frazar has form on this course, if a bit erratic, with finishes of mc-45-09-mc-mc-03-40 but I prefer the look of Wilson's form of 06-40-mc(by only one shot). It's hard to justify such short odds for Frazar given his very poor iron play at the moment (averaging only 57% GIR over the last 2 months) and Wilson's excellent form on these desert courses.
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