Summary: 7 Bets, Wins 5, Losses 2. Profit 13.6 Pts.

Pre Round One Trades

 

Buy Nick Price over David Duval 18H MB at 0.4 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U 19, Profit 5.3 Pts

Sell David Duval over Shaun Micheel 18H MB at 1 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U -19, Profit 6 Pts
Continuing the opposition of Duval at fair prices. It is difficult to price up Duval as you don't know which one will show up but so far this season Duval has failed to make the Top 30 in 4 attempts and his h2h's in 05/06 against his opponents is 2/5 and 5/11. I feel there is an assumption that Duval has turned the corner whereas the proof isn't there yet.
 

Buy Bob Estes FP at 29 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts (or 32 at Sporting Index) M/U 20.5, Loss 5.1 Pts
Estes rarely plays here so it is a surprise to see him here this week. His season so far has been ok with a 24^th and a 12^th but when you examine his 2005 stats you find an average FP a good few points higher than this quote and although this is a poor field it is still a fair trade in the 20’s. In 25 events last year Estes achieved a FP better than 29 only 7 times. Note that I originally posted as IG but the Sporting Index price is far better. However as the initial post stated IG, the result will be based on that firms' scoring system

 

Buy Steve Flesch FP at 32.2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 10.15 Pts

Flesch has form figures in this event of 13/7/9/10 over a few years, but as a firm believer in current form I am prepared to suggest low 30s is still value given his 2006 record of 53/cut/59/27/30 in his 5 starts.

 

Buy Bubba Watson FP at 35 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 4, Loss 18.6 Pts

Watson is one of the up and coming players who is getting a lot of plaudits but whereas J. B. Holmes has a win to his credit this year, Watson only has a 4^th in Hawaii which has been followed since with tame efforts in California finishing 56^th and a having a MC. I’m not convinced yet that Watson has what it takes to be worthy of the quote he has this week and will oppose him til’ proven otherwise.

 

Buy Camilo Villegas FP at 35 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 44.5, Profit 5.7 Pts
Villegas is another of the new “stars” although has been around on this tour a little longer than Holmes and Watson. He played in 04’ without much success and only got to play in the Ford and Western Open in 05, once again doing nothing. In 06’ he’s back and like the others has one big result mixed in with poor ones, a 2^nd at Phoenix coupled with two missed cuts and a 42^nd. Like Watson 35 is value until he proves he should be this price

 

Buy Dean Wilson FP at 32.2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 10.15 Pts

Wilson was 6^th here in 03’ but since then has finished 40^th and missed a cut. As Stanley says in his preview he has two Top 10’s this year so far which compares favourably with four from all of last year but that has been factored into the price.