Summary: Bets: 6, Wins: 2, Losses 4. Loss 3.94 Pts

Tournament Trades

Buy Shigeki Maruyama FP at 33 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 27, Loss 3.6 Pts
Maruyama is a popular pick this week as a result of a good finish last week at the Nelson. However, if you look at the last 3 seasons, the smiling assassin has finished 56^th at Wachovia, 7^th at the Nelson and then missed the cut here in 2004. In 2005 his results were 56/6/32, almost a mirror image and his 2006 results are uncannily similar at 26/6. So effectively, Maruyama shows a liking for the Byron Nelson event but has no real form at the events which are played either side of it.

Buy Lucas Glover FP at 30.6 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 11.06 Pts

Glover has played here twice and missed the cut both times but is being priced on what has been an excellent season so far. In 12 stroke play events he has 5 Top 10’s and only 3 missed cuts but interestingly when he has made the weekend he has been no worse than 21^st in those 9 starts. This equates to an average FP of 22 and like Appleby in previous weeks this really can’t be sustained over the course of the year. With him playing an event he has done nothing at so far, we should trade at the above price but no higher.

Round One Trades

Sell Kenny Perry over Mark Brooks at 13 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 22, Loss 2.7 Pts

Sell Olin Browne over Mark Brooks at 11 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 3.3 Pts
Brooks has a Top 10 finish here only two years ago and that coupled with the fact Perry has admitted to only being 80% fit after injury suggests the first price is too big. Browne has missed two cuts here in a row so is also considered a couple of points too high at his price of 11.

Sell Stephen Ames over Jonathan Kaye at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 25, Loss 5.1 Pts
Head to head’s from 05’ onwards sees a 10-8 R1 lead and a 26-20-8 lead in all rounds for Ames but that doesn’t translate to a price as big as 8-11. Ames was 3^rd here in 04’ and Kaye is going through a tough spell currently with three missed cuts in his last 4 events but that shouldn’t make the price as high as 8-11

Sell Arron Oberholser over Brad Faxon at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 28, Loss 6.9 Pts
Heads to head’s here show a 9-8-1 lead in R1’s and an 11-8 tournament lead to Faxon who, like Kaye, is currently on a poor stretch of form. Likewise with the Ames quote though, 5-8 is too big.