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Outright Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: Outright

FBR Open

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FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +6.75pts

Verplank 2nd
Cink 15th
Glover 20th

Just when I'd given up all hope, Verplank birdied the last three holes for a five-way share of 2nd place. It looked as though he had thrown away a great chance on the back nine with fluffed chips and three-putts, but it all came good in the end. Cink and Glover hung around the leaderboard, but never really threatened a top-5 finish with Glover, in particular, developing a knack of recording a double-bogey as soon as he got into the top-10!

 

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Scott Verplank to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ Expekt
Just can't bring myself to back Verplank to win, whatever form he is in! And he is in good form at the moment with a runners-up finish in the Bob Hope, which is a particularly impressive performance as he had finished in the top-10 only once previously. Add in the fact that he had two other runners-up finishes last year and finished in the top-5 in 18% of his PGA Tour starts last year and there is value in these odds. It also helps that he hasn't missed a cut here in the last decade.

Stewart Cink to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
Cink has slipped down the odds page rather rapidly since the end of the March last year when, in fact, he started last season rather well with three top-5 finishes and a worst finish of 26th in his opening seven events. He did lose form thereafter, but it was significant that he finished with a top-3 finish in his last event of 2005 and has since opened up with a 10th place finish in an event in which he missed the cut every year until 2005 and a 28th place finish after a very poor opening round (123rd position). In fact, it has been significant that he improved his position after every single round in his last four starts. So long as he does not leave himself too much to do after Thursday's action, he certainly looks capable of, at least, earning his sixth top-15 finish in this event in the last eight years.

Lucas Glover to win 66/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, BetDirect and Boyle Sports
A tentative play here as Glover will miss a cut badly very soon. His recent play has been extremely good, but to achieve three top-10 finishes in four consecutive weeks of golf will take its toll, particularly as he has not displayed such consistent form in the past. With no course form, I would have swerved him, but as he won in Arizona on the Nationwide Tour in 2003 and finished 9th in Arizona in the Chrysler Classic of Tucson last year, I'll hope that he doesn't hit that proverbial brick wall this week. If he continues to ride the crest of his current form, there is certainly value in these odds.