Sell Troy Matteson over Nathan Green 18H MB at 0 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -25, Profit 6.25 Pts

I can only assume here that IG have taken the view that Green will suffer some sort of letdown from his play off defeat last week. However, watching post event interviews Green was overjoyed to be part of it all. Matteson is one of the new crop of graduates to the tour but in the first month has performed ok without making headlines (31/24/28). Green meanwhile has the T2 last week but also a 5^th in Hawaii at the Sony Open. Whether Green does show signs of a mental letdown from last week remains to be seen but on all known current form he should at least be the favourite in this match.

Buy Ted Purdy over David Duval 18H MB at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Profit 5.12 Pts

Purdy has had a very slow start this year with 22^nd his best result in 3 events and his Phoenix form is terrible but even allowing for all that, Duval is a high score waiting to happen every time he steps up to the tee and has to be opposed off of levels. Yes, he is showing signs of recovery from his slump but his two made cuts from two this year have been influenced greatly by one really low round each week. Given all the doubts about Duval’s golf just now Purdy should be clear favourite by a good 3 or 4 points.

Sell David Toms over Todd Hamilton 18H MB at 13 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.25 Pts M/U 28, Loss 3.75 Pts
Toms theoretically should beat Hamilton but in 2005 where they played in the same event we have interesting results. There was 18 matches with Toms winning only 9, losing 6 and having an average M/U of under 4. there is no doubt Toms is a far better player but his price reflects the theory that he is a likelier winner than he actually is.

Buy Lucas Glover FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 23, Loss 5.5 Pts
As Stanley alludes to in his preview, Glover is due a fall but it is whether it will come this week or not. Having stripped for action every week so far, Glover has made the most of his chances finishing Top 10 in the 3 events where he has made the weekend. Most players struggle though to play too many weeks in a row without showing tiredness and this is multiplied when the player has been in contention although it could be argued that Glover, bar last week, was never really a challenger in those 3 events. Also, Glover has yet to play here which, with the biggest crowds of the season by some way, may take a bit of getting used to. On the occasions last year Glover had consecutive Top 10’s he posted a 50 M/U the following week, he has yet to post three big finishes in a row.