FINAL RESULT: 1-3; -0.80pts

Rose 4th
Owen 21st
Chopra mc
Rose 4th

Looked like I could get the winner in all four events this week at 6/1, 20/1, 50/1 and 50/1, but in the end I couldn't even get the guy who was 4/9 at four bookies on Saturday morning. What a tortuous game this is to bet on!

Further outright play (6pts)

Justin Rose to win 0.935/1 [or -107 in moneyline terms] @ Pinnacle
Adding a maximum play on Rose who leads the event by four shots with two holes to play of his 2nd round and is in prime position to pick up at least one more birdie on the par-5 eighth hole. There were fears that he would struggle to following his opening rounds after he was only a matter of inches away from shooting 59, but he was very impressive yesterday. He has thrown events away in the past, but the players chasing him will hardly scare him this time (Ridings, Matteson, Damron, Dawson, etc.) and that makes this very different to the 2004 Masters. And then there is the fact that this is an event in his American home town, so it will certainly help him relax. If he does birdie the par-5, he will have a five-shot lead and that will certainly help him relax! There are plenty of bookies pricing him at 1/2, so this price is not to ignored.
(Five Dimes offer -140 which is still considerably better than the European bookies)

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Justin Rose to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Ignore his missed cut at Greensboro. As he admits on his website, he has been playing some "really nice golf recently" - finishes of 4th, 14th, 14th and 2nd in his previous four starts - and the setup problems that he had last time out were easily fixed. He was looking forward to spending time at his own home in Orlando and that is the location of this week's event. He put that home advantage to good use last year when finishing 3rd (24th on his debut the year before) and should do so again this year.

Greg Owen to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
Owen is another Briton living in Florida, who has put that (adopted) home advantage to good use. He finished in the top-20 in both the Ford Championship and Honda Classic in March and then really should have won the Bay Hill Invitational the following week. He ultimately finished 2nd, but at least he has been showing the same form again recently with finishes of 9th, 12th and 16th in his last three starts. They have coincided with a visit from his England-based coach, David Ridley, and the results are clear. Even if there are doubts about his putting under pressure, this is more than compensated for in these odds.

Daniel Chopra to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Victor Chandler
Very surprised at these odds. Chopra is another Florida resident who will be glad to get back to his adopted home and he arrives there in extremely good form, having finished finished 16th, 6th and 2nd in thee last three weeks. He has played in this event in each of the last two years, improving to finish 49th and 21st and he will be certainly encouraged by how he played in the pro-am format last week. With a similar open-course setup, the big-hitting Swede should figure on the leaderboard for another week at least.