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Spread Picks - PGA Tour |
Tipster: Andy |
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Summary: Bets 7, Wins 3, Losses 4. P&L +3.6 Pts. A very strange week where
late Friday we were staring at a fairly extensive loss and by Sunday night had
made a very small but welcome profit.
Round Two Trades
Sell Camilo Villegas over Shane Bertsch 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts
M/U 19, Loss 4.2 Pts
Both players struggled yesterday and it’s probably a borderline call to go in again but in both matches I would happily take the prices offered if oblivious to yesterdays scoring. Had Villegas won by more than 3 I would say 5-8 is poor value. Arguably the price shouldn’t be any higher than it was yesterday.
Sell Geoff Ogilvy over Craig Perks 18H MB at 15 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts
M/U 43, Loss 8.4 Pts
Yesterday, Perks played better than he has been only being beaten heavily late on by an albatross from Ogilvy. This is one of these scenarios where we risk further losses knowing we have value on the underdog who may lose most of the time but with a 15pt start the few times it falls on our side would cover the losses.
Round One Trades
Sell Trevor Immelman over Richard S. Johnson 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U -13, Profit 5.4 Pts
Immelman just doesn’t seem suited to Florida conditions with 7 events played and a best finish in only two cuts made of T46. Admittedly, Johnson doesn’t compare much better with only 3 cuts made in 10. However, even although both are poor this shouldn’t result in a quote as high as 5 on Immelman. Yes, he should be favourite, but not by as much.
Sell Camilo Villegas over Shane Berstch 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U 19, Loss 4.5 Pts
Bertsch leads head to heads in 06’ on tour by 3-2 but of course this is priced due to Villegas achieving a Top 3 place last week chasing Tiger in Miami. Villegas may have played well last week but his results are mixed, another 2nd and four results outside the Top 40. Bertsch has a 13th in Hawaii and a 33rd at Pebble and is definitely under-priced in this match-up this week.
Sell Geoff Ogilvy over Craig Perks 18H MB at 14 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U 25, Loss 3.3 Pts
This is another example of a price being high due to the favourites’ most recent outing. Ogilvy won the Matchplay and has form at this event. Couple that with Perks who has done virtually nothing since winning Sawgrass in 02’ and has missed 13 cuts in a row. But, sometimes an obvious winner can be bad value and at 14 Ogilvy is, just.
Tournament Trades
Buy Fred Couples FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts
M/U 50, Profit 9.6 Pts
With a 9th and 4th in his last 2 stroke-play events, and two top 25’s on this course, Couples will be a popular choice this week for backers. At 34 to buy his FP though, I feel we should oppose Couples who in 2005 averaged a few points higher on FP scoring.
Buy Lee Westwood FP at 43 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts
M/U 58, Profit 9 Pts
Westwood plays Honda for the first time having previously played Bay Hill as a prep for the Players’ the week after. His 3Y average FP on this tour is nearly 10 points higher than his quotes on both scoring systems and his price may be skewed by his 5th at the Nissan a few weeks back. 43 is a very fair price for Westwood on this tour and the extra risk of 8 pts at Sporting Index is advised due to the 61% strike rate where he finishes higher than 50th over the three years.
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