Charles Warren to beat Aaron Baddeley                  +103 @ Expekt

Baddeley managed to "do a Lonard" last week and pull off an unexpected win thanks to a course which suited his

excellent short game. But Baddeley's performances on longer courses have regularly shown the limitations within his

game. This years course has never been used before but the members course at Redstone, where this tournament has 

previously been held, is as long as the new tournament course and Baddeley has withdrawn after a first round 78 and

finished 65th. Warren on the otherhand, who has some excellent total driving stats (2nd on the tour for this season), 

has one finish of 13th. Warren has generally shown the more consistent form this season with an average FP of 34

compared to Baddeley's 44. Not much to separate them on the h2h's, but on a course that will suit Warren, not suit

Baddeley and with the distinct possibility of Baddeley still being on a high from last week (his subsequent tournament

finish on the PGA tour after a top 5 finish reads mc/w/87/21/78/mc) this is solid bet at a good price as Warren should

be -115 by my reckoning.