FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +3.75pts

Singh 8th
Garcia 41st
Cabrera 5th

It was a good job that Cabrera had a good weekend, else this would have been another frustrating week. Singh had held the sole first round lead, but even though he had been erratic thereafter, he was only one shot out of the lead with nine holes to play. But his play really was very poor from that point on and his 3-foot miss on the 16th meant he didn't even finish in the payout places. But some very impressive play by Cabrera turned this into a profitable event.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. available generally
Did consider Goosen for this, but 12/1 is just too short for a player who has played three straight weeks coming into a major and finishing 2nd and 4th in the last two of those. Instead, Vijay gets the nod here. A former winner in 2000, he has finished no worse than 7th in five of six attempts this millenium. And he has had particularly good chances to win a second Green Jacket: until finding water at the 13th and 15th holes in 2002 and last year when he hit more greens in regulation than anyone else in the field, but took more putts than anyone else to finish 5th. He has reflected on last year's event and admits that had he putted like he normally does he would probably have won the event, but it also leads him to be confident about this week as, in his own words, "now I'm putting really well and feel like I can make putts." It was the difference between winning and just being placed last year, but with the lengthening of the course and the dry conditions, putting should less important and that is good news for Vijay. It is no coincidence that the longest venue for a major was Whistling Straits (2004 PGA Championship) and he won that title. He has shown good form this year without winning, but this week represents his best chance of victory so far. The course conditions really have limited the number of players who can win this week and there should be an absence of unfamiliar names on Sunday's leaderboard.

Sergio Garcia to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Bet365, Paddy Power and BetFred ['w/o Big Five' market]
There have been only two years since Augusta National was lengthened considerably in 2001 in which there had been a shortage of rain in the period before the event (2002 and 2004). On both occasions there were thunderstorms and rain during the event to soften the course a little, but these are the best indicators to how the course will play this week as last month was one of the driest Marches in Augusta history. In 2002, the 'Big Five' of Woods, Singh, Mickelson, Els and Goosen filled four of the top-5 places and in 2004, they filled the top-two places. In the wetter years, they filled just one of the top-5 in 2003 and three of the top-nine places last year. And the Big Five have one important common factor: length off the tee. The lengthening of the course and the dry conditions should make this an event in which the Big Five will dominate the leaderboard and that makes this market particularly attractive, especially as there are worries over Garcia's final round nerves when challenging for a major title. In the two dry years, 2002 and 2004, he finished 4th and 8th, which translate into finishes of 2nd and 4th in this market. And with the dry conditions and the winds earlier this week drying out the greens even further, they should be playing particularly fast, which suits Garcia's game perfectly. Like Vijay, he has shown some very good form this year without winning, so while I don't see him donning the Green Jacket on Sunday night, another high finish in a major should be profitable in this market.

Angel Cabrera to win 40/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Paddy Power and BetFred ['w/o Big Five' market]
Rather more speculative here. He has missed the cut in each of the last two years, though last year he was on a run of successive missed cuts and two years ago it was his only start in a two-month spell, but from 2001 to 2003 he finished 10th, 9th and 15th. He has shown some form this year with a 15th place finish in the Bay Hill Invitational, but it is at the Augusta National that he is most suited. The increases in the length of the course suit his very long driving, it is a classic risk-reward setup and he will take risks as shown by the fact that he is ranked 1st in the 'going for the green' category on the PGA Tour, but he more than just a bomber, he also has a very good touch on the greens as shown by the fact that he is ranked 3rd in the '3-putt avoidance' category on the PGA Tour. These are the attributes that are important this week and with the Big Five expected to fill a lot of the leading positions, there is much better value in this market and 40/1 than the 7/1 on the top-10 finish.