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Mercedes Championships
Can't complain about Faxon's defeat as I misjudged his fitness badly, but disappointed with Ogilvy's final round performance to let Leonard in.
FINAL RESULT Ogilvy was beaten by Leonard by 4 Faxon was beaten by Lonard by 13
Bets: 2 Wins: 0 Losses: 2 Profit/Loss = -4.00 pts
Matchup bets: (All bets: Total Stake 2pts)
Geoff Ogilvy to beat Justin Leonard +100 @ FiveDimes Leonard had a very poor and inconsistent second half of the season last year, with only one top ten finish and a number of missed cuts. With an average finish of almost 16th from his seven starts he looks to be one to oppose here. There are a number of options to oppose him with but I'll take the remarkably consistent Ogilvy, of particular interest in match betting. He has great length off the tee, performs well on both par 4’s and par 5’s (this course has a par of 73) and is a fantastic putter. He has never played the course before, but neither had Garcia or Clarke before their victories here. Ogilvy also defeated Leonard in 8 out of 12 h2h’s last season.
Brad Faxon to beat Peter Lonard +106 @ Pinnacle The odds available on Faxon here are too large to ignore, despite all the uncertainty surrounding this particularmatch-up. Faxon has only recently began hitting shots following knee surgery in October. But Lonard has hardly had more preparation time following his operation to repair torn medial meniscus so it is surprising to see these huge odds for Faxon. Lonard has never played at this course while Faxon has had finishes of 8-23-9 to complement a previous first and second place in the Sony Open, also held in long off the tee, but Faxon is a superb putter in comparison to Lonard. Faxon’s average FP last year was over 5 positions better than Lonard’s and he leads in h2h’s over the past 3 years 25-18-3 and over the past 12 months 8-5-1. At these odds Faxon has to be taken as a value pick.
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