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Outright Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: Outright

Mercedes Championships

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Choi 19th
Crane 25th
Bryant 9th

Choi held the lead early in the first round until a triple bogey and Bryant threatened to sneak a top-4 finish, but always fell from contention quicker than he got there. A poor opening event for 2006.

 

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

K.J. Choi to win 28/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Paddy Power and BetDirect
International players have won here in each of the last four years and at such an early stage of the season, such ability to play in warmer climates during the off-season appears to be a sizeable advantage. That extends to the South Korean, K.J. Choi, who was competing and finishing 2nd in a co-sanctioned European Tour event in December, a full month after the PGA Tour had finished for the year. That mark was also the position in which he finished in his previous course appearance in 2003, when he set a course record of 62 which still holds today. If that was on his course debut and it took a very impressive performance from Ernie Els to beat him in 2003, and he is not present this week, Choi does look decent odds at 28/1.

Ben Crane to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James, BetInternet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetFred
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is famous for the enormous size of its greens and so it is not too difficult to back the player widely regarded as the best putter on Tour. Famous more for his slow play, he looked as though he would struggle to even be playing on this Tour a year ago after a back injury forced him away for nine weeks and to change his swing under Butch Harmon to minimise the damage to his back. He returned to not only finish 2nd in his sixth tournament back - Rory Sabbatini incident and all - but won the U.S. Bank Championship the following month and would record two further top-3 finishes in September and a 7th place finish in the Tour Championship, of which only two people who beat him that week are present in Hawaii. His short game is very well-suited to this course and his remodelled swing has enabled him to move up a level on this Tour. These odds don't do him justice in this field.

Bart Bryant to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
And nor does 33/1 on a player who won wire-to-wire in the Tour Championship in November and who beat a high class field to win the Memorial Tournament last year as well. It is important to have some previous course form in this event, not just because of the course, but because of the whole environment of the season-opening, family-holiday-type event. A year on, it will be less of a distraction and he has a much greater belief in himself that he can beat this field. He even received his first-ever invite to the Masters on December 23rd so there is a very strong feel-good factor with Bryant at the moment and he has spoken of this interviews. And he has also said that he likes his chances this week: "It fits my game pretty well. I am pretty much a low-ball hitter and it gets pretty windy there." Sounds good to me!