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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Chris

Nissan Open 

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Final Result: 8 wins, 5 losses, 1 tie, +7.96pts

 

 

round 3 2balls:

Back Scott Verplank to beat Ernie Els to win 1pt @2.27 at Pinnacle - lost

Back Jim Furyk to beat Ernie Els to win 1.25pts @2.25 at Expekt - won

Continuing the opposition of Els with two of the US tour's steady-eddies.

Back Billy Mayfair to beat Nick Watney to win 1.5pts @1.952 at FiveDimes - lost

Wrong favourite here in my opinion. To back that up, Mayfair leads the round by round head to head stats 40-14 (with 10 ties) over the past year. In round 3 that record is 5-3-1.

 

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adding round 2 3ball:

Back Jonathan Kaye against Tiger Woods and Brent Geiberger to win 2pts @5.0 at Paddy Power -won

Another (fairly speculative) opposition of Woods. Kaye didn't play well yesterday but that was mainly down to not enjoying much luck on the greens. Woods is suffering from flu and after his round yesterday said he planned to just go home and sleep. I think it is worth taking a chance at these odds with a possibly out of sorts Tiger. 

 

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round 2 2balls:

Back Chris DiMarco to beat Ernie Els to win 1.5pts @2.55 at Expekt -won

Els wasn't totally convincing yesterday. Fair enough he did enough to comfortably beat DiMarco, but he was mainly let down by his putter yesterday and is the sort of gritty competitor who should battle back today.

Back Scott Verplank to beat Mike Weir to win 1.5pts @1.93 at Expekt - lost

Back Jim Furyk to beat Tiger Woods to win 1pt @2.42 at Expekt -won

Repeating two of yesterday's plays, which resulted in a win and a tie. Slightly lower odds on each and slightly lower stakes accordingly.

 

round 2 3 ball:

Back Carlos Franco against John Daly and Peter Lonard to win 1pt @3.25 at Bet365 -won

Lost this 3 ball yesterday, so now priced as the outsider of the 3. I'm always happy to oppose Daly as a bad round is never far away for him.

 

 

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round 1 3balls:

Back Steve Jones against Ernie Els and David Duval to win 3pts @5.5 at Betfair/Betdaq  (i.e. a bet of 0.67pts to potentially win 3pts) - lost

Jones hasn't been in the best of form this season, but has still put some good rounds together. Taking a chance Els won't be able to click in to gear immediately here as he continues his return from injury. Duval may figure, but he is far more likely not too.

 

Back Heath Slocum against Chris DiMarco and Jason Gore to win 3pts @4.3 at Betfair  (4.0 available generally at books)  - won

Despite Slocum's poor record here I don't think he should be this big a price here. Gore is capable of anything and of late that anything has generally been very poor. DiMarco looks strong here, but over 18 holes anything can happen and at this price Slocum looks good value. 

 

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round 1 2balls:

Back Jim Furyk to beat Tiger Woods to win 1.5pts @2.55 at Expekt - tie (void)

The gulf in class between these two players is not as great as this prices suggests. This is also a track where Woods hasn't enjoyed his usual level of dominance.

Back Scott Verplank to beat Mike Weir to win 2pts @2.1 at Expekt - won

Even with Weir's two wins here I simply have to take Verplank at odds against. He is the far more consistent player of the two, while Mike Weir showed again last week that he is either brilliant or awful.

Back Chris DiMarco to beat Robert Allenby to win 0.75pts @1.926 at FiveDimes - lost

Back Chad Campbell to beat Robert Allenby to win 0.75pts @1.952 at FiveDimes - won

Allenby is another past champion here, but again he isn't consistent enough (particularly in America) for me. Campbell and DiMarco have both shown excellent form this season and their iron play should see them go well with the small greens here.