Summary: 7 Bets, 5 Wins, 2 Losses. Profit = 22.06 Pts.
 

Pre Round One Trades

Buy Mike Weir FP at 29 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 41.5, Profit 7.12 Pts

Going out in the last pairing last Sunday and having two wins at the Nissan in 03’ and 04’ will no doubt attract many punters to Weir this week. However, his average FP in 7 visits to the course is over 35. Also, we cannot disregard the round that Weir put up on Sunday to finish Tied 3^rd when he was 6 clear of 3^rd place at start of play. He also has a mixed set of results in 06’ with two Top 5’s and two MC’s. 

Buy Chris Di’Marco FP at 30 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 11.4 Pts

Di’Marco hasn’t faired that well at Riviera. A 6^th place in 2002 is easily the best of a run of 7 visits that has averaged an FP M/U of 41 which is a full 15 points above his general average. This hasn’t been factored into his quote this week down to the fact he has won in Abu Dhabi and posted two Top 20s’ since back home. But with over 30 of the world’s top 50 here the price is value

Buy Stewart Cink FP at 34 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 47.1, Profit 8.1 Pts.

Like Weir, Cink has played this event 7 times but has a more regular record round Riviera with one top 10 and an average FP of just over 30. In 06’ Cink has performed ok, finishing 10^th in the Sony, 28^th at the Buick and 15^th in the FBR Open but has had similar good form coming into the Nissan only to average the numbers above. At the price offered we have a fair bet. At 34, it is a bit borderline for value but it’s a quality field so take 34 but no more.

Sell Bart Bryant over Todd Hamilton 18H MB at 9 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 2.7 Pts
Sell Tim Clark over Joe Ogilvie 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 16, Loss 3.3 Pts
In both cases we have two favourites who should win, but the probability of this happening is over-reflected in the odds.

Bryant has been off injured for a few weeks so comes into this event with that as a question mark, although we have suffered ourselves with Hamilton’s recent form which has been poor. Head to heads since the start of 05’ sees Bryant lead 15-4 but on R1 scores only, he leads 11-7 with one tie. The average M/U in those 19 matches is 6.2.

In the other match, both players have been top 20 in their last two events, which suggests the price is a little high at 5. In head to heads Clark leads 12-5 but similarly to the other match is only 9-6-4 ahead in R1 matches giving an average M/U of 2.

Sell Lee Westwood over Greg Owen 18H MB at 3.8 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Profit 5.64 Pts
A match-up between two Englishmen, one of who now plays F/T in the States. Neither has particularly good course form but Owen had a good start to his PGA career last year with 8 Top 20's in 24 events. Westwood only achieved 1 Top 10 in 11 starts. The price is high as Owen has only made one cut in four starts this year but even allowing for this 3.8 is too high. Head to heads on this tour shows a 3-3 tie but Owen having outscored Westwood in 11 of their 22 rounds, with 3 ties.

Pre Round Two Trades

Sell Tim Clark over Joe Ogilvie 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 37, Loss 9.6 Pts

Our only loser yesterday, by 2 strokes, is worthy of another go. Admittedly, R2 stats for Clark are far better over Ogilvie than in R1 but I still believe that the 5 offered is value.