Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Buy Trevor Immelman FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 35, Profit 0.6 Pts
After a 5 week break to change nappies and have sleepless nights with a new born, Immelman comes back this week trying to resume where he left off as he was in good form up until his break. In 9 events between Houston in April and the Western Open in July, Immelman finished no worse than 21st and won that last event. There is of course no course form to study as Medinah was last used in 1999, long before Immelman appeared on the "majors" scene but he has played in three recent PGA championships finishing 48th, 37th and 17th. His average FP on all US tour events is a couple of points higher than the price offered this week and with a field strength in the Top 5 for the year he should arguably be a little higher than 34. The break may make him a little rusty coming back in to a major pressure cooker where you need to be totally on top of your game to compete.

Round One Trades

Sell Miguel Angel Jimenez over Tom Pernice at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 31, Loss 9.3 Pts
Two Top 20's in the last two majors in America has halted a shocking run from the Spaniard as it looked like he was a tour journeyman when he played in the US. In the twenty events previous to these two he had no Top 20's and only 4 Top 40's. These results cannot be ignored and he comes up against Pernice who has had a good year. So far he has achieved five Top 10's and is on a good current run with a 7th place in the Buick a fortnight ago and was 19th in last weeks stableford event. Pernice should be favourite on tour form alone by at least two points.

Sell Graeme McDowell over J J Henry at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -31, Profit 9.9 Pts
McDowell had a good tournament recently back in Europe but this year in America he has been poor. Two Top 20's in 11 starts with 7 missed cuts is does not compare with Henry's stats which include a win, a 2nd, a 4th and a h2h record against Mcdowell this year of 5-4 in events won. These two players at best should be 1.5 choice although even 0-3 in favour of the American would not be an over estimation of Henry's chances.

Sell Richard Green over Steve Lowery at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -19, Profit 6.9 Pts
Green has missed his last 3 cuts on this tour and bar an 8th at Memorial in 2005 has failed to beat 46th in 8 starts over the last two years. Lowery hasn't exactly been performing this season but he still has two Top 20's in the last 3 months. Green is probably a better player than Lowery but this is an away tie and he shouldn't be favourite by as much as 4 points.

Sell Johan Edfors over Ryan Moore at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -25, Profit 8.1 Pts
Sell Johan Edfors over Harrison Frazar at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -31, Profit 9.3 Pts
Edfors makes his US bow and that lack of experience suggests that being clear favourite over two "locals" is debateable. Frazar was 7th two weeks ago in the Buick, and has now finished Top 30 in his last three events. Moore, meanwhile, has missed his last three cuts although he was 2nd back in July at the other Buick event. However you are getting a 2pt start to allow for this and in both cases Edfors should be treated as a player with undoubted potential but who needs to prove his worth on a tougher tour.

Sell Robert Karlsson over Kirk Triplett at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 22, Loss 5.4 Pts
Karlsson has missed 6 of his last 7 cuts on this tour, admittedly going back 7 years, but these figures show that the Swede has yet to show anything on the US side of the Atlantic to make him a 4-7 favourite over a player who has a win this year to his name. Triplett has done little since but has still produced three other top 30 finishes, and although Karlsson should be favourite on current form, albeit in a different region, it shouldn't be by as much as 4.

Buy Kenneth Ferrie over Hideto Tanihara at 3 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U 19, Profit 4.8 Pts
Ferrie acquitted himself well in the US Open back in June and that is better than anything Tanihara has done in 22 starts over 18 months where his best finish is 31st, which is his only finish inside the top 45. In the above bets against European tour players with little experience of PGA conditions we can only assume to an extent they won't take to it like a duck to water, but we have known proof that Tanihara hasn't.

Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

PGA Championship