FINAL RESULT: 6-8, +0.99pts.

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Round 4:

Back Vaughn Taylor to beat Phil Mickelson to win 1.5pts @3.0 at Coral - won

Back Tom Pernice to beat Retief Goosen to win 2pts @2.8 at Centrebet - lost

These both look like good prices on what are far from nonentities in Pernice and Taylor. Pernice especially has shown in recent weeks that he knows how to hang around the top end of the leaderboard on a Sunday. If Mickelson tries to push on here to try to catch the leaders there is more chance he will start going the other way on this course.

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Round 3:

Back Bernhard Langer to beat Miguel Angel Jimenez to win 1.5pts @2.02 at Pinnacle - won

As far as I'm concerned Langer is the better player, he also has a great long term record of playing consistently well on this course. His bad run yesterday came almost immediately after hitting the lead - the two things aren't neccessarily connected but he is a safe enough distance from the lead that there doesn't seem much risk of it happening again.

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Round 2:

Back Justin Rose against Jerry Kelly and Aaron Baddeley to win 3pts @3.75 at BlueSq - won

Rose may have shot 6 over yesterday but this looks like quite an overreaction.

Back Loren Roberts against Padraig Harrington and Tim Herron to win 3pts @4.33 at BetFred - lost

Ultimately disappointing result here yesterday, but going back in at a slightly bigger price.

Back Todd Fischer againt Lee Westwood and Paul McGinley to win 2.5pts @4.5 at Skybet - won

Reasonable 1 over par round yesterday, I don't think he should be this big a price today.

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adding round 1:

Back Loren Roberts against Padraig Harrington and Tim Herron to win 5pts @4.0 at Coral - lost

If Fred Funk can win here, then why not Loren Roberts? He has been in superb form on the Champions Tour and has an accurate iron game well suited to this course. Harrington may have good form here, but he has been quite heavily over-rated this week in my opinion. Herron was 6th last year and I think he is a factor in this, but as a play both opposing Pod and backing the 'king' of the moss I think this looks superb value.

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adding round 1:

Back Bob Estes against Robert Allenby and Bob Tway to win 2pts @3.4 at BlueSq - lost

Estes is another in the Senden boat of two missed cuts in the run up to this event, but he has a decent record here and this price just looks too big to turn down.

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Round 1:

Back John Senden against John Rollins and Robert Damron to win 5pts @3.0 at Centrebet - lost

This looks a huge over-reaction to Senden's 2 missed cuts in a row. In an event where course form has more importance than usual Senden clearly stands out in this 3 ball with his 22nd place here last year. Rollins has missed the cut all three times he has played this event. Damron is a poor player these days and has only made a handful of cuts in recent months.

Back Vaughn Taylor against Jonathan Kaye and Rich Beem to win 3pts @3.1 at William Hill - lost

Another crazy price - rating Beem ahead of Taylor looks madness to me - Taylor leads round by round head to heads 23-10 over the last year. Beem also has a terrible record in this event, missing 4 cuts from the last 5, while Taylor made a solid debut here last year. Kaye has a reasonable record here and is the obvious threat in this 3 ball, but the price justifies the play.

Back Sergio Garcia to beat Retief Goosen to win 1pt @2.05 at Pinnacle - lost

Goosen has been very hit and miss in this event - a couple of top 15 finishes, but plenty of missed cuts too. His recent form suggests the latter could be on the cards this week. Garcia is in a good bit of form at the moment - just his old nemesis the putter holding him back. On a course where the long game is so important Garcia looks set for another good week.

Back Vijay Singh to beat Tiger Woods to win 1.75pts @2.55 at Five Dimes - won

This is a much closer match than these odds suggest to my eyes. Woods' game off the tee still isn't in good shape and even his irons were causing him problems last week.

Back Mark Calcavecchia to beat Tom Lehman to win 1pt @2.35 at Five Dimes - won

Back Billy Mayfair to beat Tom Lehman to win 1pt @2.15 at Pinnacle - lost

Lehman has a good record here, but I think that has been a bit over-played in these prices. Calcavecchia has had some good showings here too and Mayfair's game is well suited to the course also.