Tom Lehman to beat Michael Campbell                       -102 @ SIA  

Campbell has shown some decent form at Sawgrass previously, with finishes of 15th in 2001 and 11th in 2002, and

he should have the game for this course being a very accurate driver. But the value has to lie with Lehman.

Campbell recent form is poor having missed the cut in his last two starts in 72-hole tournaments and won't have

pleasant memories of his opening round of 89 the last time he played here in 2003. This event looks tailor-made

for Lehman though. He is in great form this season having improved his fitness over the winter, has a formidable

course record (08-06-02-mc-08-12-28-39-mc-02) and the Sawgrass course, with its tree-lined fairways and small

greens, is ideal for Lehman's style of play.

Scott Verplank to beat Retief Goosen                         +110 @ NordicBet

Well it seems to be working so let's keep on backing Verplank in matchups. You always think there will come a point

when the bookies price Verplank up so that there is no value to be found, and then a price like this comes along.

There's not much more to say about Verplank's consistency. His record at Sawgrass over the years reads

11-32-20-44-28-08-26-02. Goosen on the other hand has seven appearances in this event missing the cut in five of

them. Goosen has decent enough current form but not Verplank's consistency and is also defeated in the h2h stats.

Also his accuracy from the tee is generally very poor and he is not going to be favoured by the thick rough and the

tree lined fairways. Verplank is currently rated 8th for driving accuracy for this field. Verplank should be favourite

around the -120 mark by my reckoning so these odds look way off the mark.