FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Scott 53rd
Ogilvy mc
Verplank mc

Saturday was a horrible day. Dredge started the day at 3/1 and shot 77 in the Euro event and Scott started the day in 2nd place and 5/1 and after just missing out on birdie on the opening hole, proceeded to drop 11 shots in 10 holes. Just can't seem to get any momentum (other than in reverse) this season!

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Adam Scott to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Boyle Sports [6 places]
Scott was backed last week and missed the cut, but given that he finished by dropping five shots in his last five holes to miss the cut by two, there is more than a sneaking suspicion that he put preparations at Sawgrass high on his agenda once he failed to make a charge up the 2nd round leaderboard. And there is plenty of reason for him to concentrate on Sawgrass as well. He won there in 2004, finished 8th despite the weather chaos last year and in only his second appearance in 2003, he was in the top-10 after each of the first two rounds, eventually finishing 17th. No-one else can match that form over the last three years and, hopefully, he won't need the extra place available at Stan James and Boyles.

Geoff Ogilvy to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
It was a strange final round from Ogilvy on Sunday. Starting the day in 6th position, he was well-poised to make a similar charge to the one the previous week in the Honda Classic, but even though he hit 13 of 18 greens in regulation, he had multiple three-putts and didn't record a single birdie all day. But, in truth, if he had finished fast, as he had done the previous week, he would not have been considered for this event. He eventually finished 26th - only his second of seven events in 2006 when he has finished outside the top-20 - and hopefully the lack of a final round charge will leave him stronger for this event. He has already had two good finishes in the last three years here and there are few who can compete with him in terms of form at the moment. He is definitely value at these odds, with the only concern being a possible running out of steam around this demanding course.

Scott Verplank to finish in the top-five 9/1 @ BetFred
Once again backing Verplank, but only in the place market. He was never in contention to win last week, but made a very steady climb up the leaderboard after a slow start and found himself in the top-10 by the end of the tournament. Add that to a 15th place finish in the Ford Championship when he had been leading after 36 holes and two runners-up finishes in his remaining three strokeplay events this year and Verplank has been impressively consistent. And that consistency is evident at Sawgrass and in Florida in general. In the last three years, he has finished 8th, 26th and 2nd on this course and in that time he has finished in the top-10 in six of his twelve starts in Florida, four of which were top-3 finishes. That all adds up to a fair amount of value in 9/1 for a top-five finish.