Summary: 9 Bets, 6 Wins, 3 Losses, Profit 33.48 Pts
 

Tournament Trades:

Buy Padraig Harrington FP at 31.2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 10.72 Pts

Harrington is in fair form of late with finishes of 26^th and 16^th in his last two starts, and his Sawgrass form is good with two second places in the last three years. However, this is the best field of the year for quality and I would pitch the quote as fairer around the 34 mark.

Buy Geoff Ogilvy FP at 33.4 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 9.46 Pts

Ogilvy showed the first signs on Sunday that the mental effort shown in the last few weeks is possibly catching up with him. A final round 77 dropped him to 26th at Bay Hill when he arguably had a fair chance of at least finishing Top 5. His past Sawgrass record shows a 21^st, a 16^th and 2 missed cuts so he is fairly average at this event. Last year he won in Tucson, the same week the Matchplay was being played, he was 6^th at the Honda and then 36^th at Bay Hill. He then went on to miss the Sawgrass cut. This year he has form figures over the same period, of 1/2/26 so lets hope his trend continues.

Buy Luke Donald FP at 26.2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 50 Profit 13.57 Pts

Some firms have Donald 3rd favourite this week, ahead of the likes of Mickelson, Goosen and Els. Although Donald has the game for this venue, 26.2 is very low considering the quality against him. A winner two weeks ago and a 2^nd last year here suggests that is why the prices are so low. However, he has missed the other two cuts on this course and if you examine his record in the very big tournaments, the 4 majors and this event his 3 year record is as follows: Cut/Cut/23/Cut/Cut/24/2/3/57/52. Not great, and although he will no doubt improve on that in the years to come he shouldn’t be as low as he is.

Buy David Toms FP at 29 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 12.6 Pts

I have a fancy for Toms to do well this week as his current form is excellent, but its all about numbers in spread Betting and Toms shouldn’t be in the 20s when his 3Y record round here is Cut/Cut/68. He has missed 8 cuts in his 13 starts here and his average FP going back to 1996 (10 events played) is 40. Not worse than T19th in 5 starts this year demands respect but the course form, although not as important a stat is too damning and has to be accepted as good enough reason to oppose him at anything under 31.

Buy Robert Allenby FP at 35 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 41.5, Profit 3.9 Pts

Last of the 5 to oppose, and another in good form having won the Australian triple crown in late December and had a fast finishing 4^th last weekend in Orlando. Sawgrass form is good too with a 4^th and an 11^th in recent times, but his overall average here is exactly the point you can buy him at. Allenby’s scoring stats bar recent weeks has shown a slow decline in the last year or so and I would pitch him nearer the high 30s in this company.

Round One Matches:

Buy Vaughn Taylor over Rich Beem at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts. M/U -16, Loss 5.25 Pts
Beem has missed 4 Sawgrass cuts and averages 74.6 in 12 rounds, beating par only twice. He also has three scores of 79, 80 and 80 in those 12 so he obviously struggles round here. Taylor in one appearance coped ok finishing 32^nd last year. Taylor leads 13-5 in h2h’s since January 2005 and 12-5-2 in R1 matches. Chris has tipped up a similar bet in the fixed odds but has the third player in the 3 ball to deal with whereas we only have a 2 ball match.

Sell Lucas Glover over Nick Price at 7 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U -22, Profit 8.7 Pts
An FP average of 25 over 10 years suggest this is one of Price’s favourite events. Probably the most vocal of the shorter hitters when asked about how lengthening of courses is affecting the game, he will be happy in these surroundings. Although a shadow of his former self, when he was #1 in the world for a period, he is value with a 7pt start over debutant Glover. Head to heads since 05’ give an interesting stat that Price leads 5-4 in both matches and R1 scoring so this may not be the mismatch that the firms believe it to be.

Sell Henrik Stenson over Nick O’Hern at 0.4 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U 16, Loss 4.62 Pts
O’Hern played here for the first time last year and had a fair 24^th finish for the week. Stenson debuts this week and may, like Glover, need a round or two in competition to get used to the surroundings, especially the difficult finish. Head to heads in 05’ show a 8-6 event lead for the Swede and a 7-6-2 R1 scoring lead for the Australian. The course knowledge though just swings this in O’Hern’s favour though off of a level start. It also worth noting that Stenson has yet to better T47 in two PGA tour starts.

Sell Miguel Angel Jimenez over J. L. Lewis at 1 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U 37, Loss 10.8 Pts
Anyone who has opposed Jimenez in the States over the years will be licking their lips at another visit from the Spaniard to this tour. In 40 events since the start of 2001, Jimenez has missed 21 cuts and only finished in the Top 20 four times. His record round Sawgrass in that time is Cut/Cut/46 in three visits with an average score over 74. Lewis was 8^th here last year and although his other course form is poor, that 8^th is better than anything Jimenez has achieved. In this time, Lewis leads 19-8 in event matches, and 18-8-3 in R1 scoring. This is a classic case of a match being priced on familiarity rather than the true chances of each participant.