|
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|||||
PICKS:
Outright
Betfair
Matchups
18H Matchups
Spreads
STATS: Tour Event In-Running
PROFILES: Players Event
Live Scoring
Archive |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
Summary: 4 Bets, 2 Wins, 2 Losses. Profit 13.5 Pts Tournament Trades Buy Woody Austin FP at 27 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 13.8 Pts An average here of 28 in six attempts and a seasonal average of 37 is the long term stats for Austin who is of course in a golden spell with finishes of 6th, 7th and 16th in his last three starts. However, this week he is being talked up as a winner and is favourite in some books to be so. Even allowing for a poor field with the best players elsewhere and a 130 field, 27 is too low for his finishing position. Buy Harrison Frazar FP at 29 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts
M/U 12.5, Loss 9.9 Pts
Frazar, like Austin has played here six times and averages over 32 in that time. His 2006 average is 41 and has only one Top 10 to his name and only 6 of the 22 events have seen him beat a FP M/U of 29. In both cases, although there are good reasons for supporting the players to win what is a weak event, there is enough in their history to suggest that there is value in opposing at the prices offered. Buy Sean Micheel FP at 37 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 60.5, Profit 14.1 Pts At 32 with Spreadex, Micheel was a borderline value bet but paying an extra 5 points at Sporting is value to get with the bigger potential upside. Micheel, who was 2nd last week of course to Woods in the PGA, has an average FP under this scoring system in 2006 of over 50 and even allowing for the fact the event is poor in terms of quality, the fact we can buy him at a price 13 pts lower than his average has to be taken. Buy Craig Barlow FP at 32 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts. M/U 24.5, Loss 4.5 Pts A 36 average this year for Barlow who has only produced 4 results of any real note, 3rd and 5th in consecutive events in February and 13th and 15th this month at the International and the Buick. After the first good run he failed to produce a Top 30 place for 6 events and in the one event since the 2nd run he missed the cut with a 78 last Friday. I wouldn't want to take much more than 32 in this company but 32 is fair.
Round One Trades Buy Chris Riley over David Duval at 5 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts. Buy Rich Beem over David Duval at 3 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts............Duval N/R Duval has shown a marked improvement this year but 16th at the US Open was the last time that he finished inside the Top 50 and although his opponents aren't the most reliable players to support, especially giving up a start, they should be a touch higher than they are.
|
|
