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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Chris

Sony Open in Hawaii

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0-6, -7.32pts.  Didn't go as planned there! Bryant's poor showing was very surprising in particular. Weir was bad, but Perry was worse on the day. Gamez was opposed at a good price for us, but won anyway. The other 3 were speculative and Allen came closest, losing out on the last hole.

 

round 3 3ball:

Back Billy Mayfair against Singh and Scott to win 1.75pts @4/1 at Stan James, BetDirect - lost

Mayfair has been under-rated here due to be paired with two 'superstars'. It would be a surprise for him to come out on top here, but not as big a surprise as the price suggests.

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round 3 3ball:

LAY Robert Gamez against Byrum and Atwal to win 2pts @2.3 at Betfair (total risk 2.6pts) - lost -price update: the 2.3 was short-lived, but there is a large amount of money to be laid at 2.5, which is still far too short a price in my opinion.

There seems to be a lot of money looking to back Gamez for this one, and not just on betfair as a number of the bookies have been forced to cut their prices already. I wonder if this has got anything to do with 3rd round scoring averages..  anyway this is just a crazy short price - Atwal and Byrum are hardly mugs - they've been good enough to match Gamez's score over the first two rounds here after all. Strong fancies and 'should wins' might be some people's cup of tea, but I'll lay this price any day over 18 holes.

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adding round 1 3ball:

Back Michael Allen against Howell and Haas to win 2pts @4.7 at Betfair  - lost

Allen has played well in windy conditions before and while Howell is justifiably favourite in this 3ball I think his price is very skinny and the value is to oppose him with Allen.

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adding round 1 3ball:

Back Jonathan Kaye against Singh and Appleby to win 3pts @6.0 at Paddy Power (or 6.2 on Betfair) - lost 

Singh and Appleby both have the advantage of a run-out last week, but Kaye has shown early season form in the past 3 seasons, so I'm not too worried about rustiness on his part. This is a huge price over 18 holes for a player of Kaye's ability even against these two.

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The golf stays in Hawaii, but the course this week will offer a very different challenge to the one faced at Kapalua. Tighter fairways, small greens, doglegged holes and punishing rough will put much more of a premium on accuracy and less on distance.

Round 1:

Back Bart Bryant to beat Stuart Appleby to win 1.5pts @2.18 at FiveDimes -lost 

Bryant is one of the most accurate players on the tour and has been expressing a liking for this course as his lack of distance is not a problem like it was last week. He still fared fairly well depite the unfavourable set up at the Mercedes so has proven his game is still in the fine shape it was in at the end of last season. Appleby may have won at Kapalua, but if ever a course has suited a player perfectly it seems to be that one and him! For me he isn't good enough the rest of the year to justify the prices he goes off at and taking everything in to account he should not be the favourite he has been made in this match up. Bryant leads 27-21 in head to head rounds over the last year and 9-6 in round 1 head to heads.

Back Kenny Perry to beat Mike Weir to win 1.5pts @1.8 at FiveDimes - lost

Like Bryant, Perry is also a ball striking machine and so should be suited to the course conditions. Mike Weir seems to have already been credited with a return to form in some quarters despite there being no solid evidence for it whatsoever (yet). Even if he has got over injury problems which affected his game there's still the issue of his terrible putting, which has been fundamental in his recent downfall. The head to head stats show Perry as massive favourite (32-13 over all rounds, 10-3 in round 1). Granted these are from a period when Weir was in bad form, but still show clear dominance from Perry.