FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +20.44pts

Toms 1st
Howell 53rd
Bryant mc

Not as exciting as the third round, but there were none who could live with Toms once he had complete control of his game over the weekend. The first winning tip is always one of the sweetest of the year, particularly as it eradicates the pressures that arise from a negative P/L total.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

David Toms to win 25/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
For two rounds last week, it was vintage Toms as he started the weekend in 2nd place and though he was blown off the course on Saturday, his 13th place finish was still a good performance given the very long and damp condition of the course. His 13th place finish also represented his worst finish in his six starts on the Hawaiian Islands. He matched that finish in this event last year and in 2002 finished 4th in this event. So given that this is a flatter, tighter course on which greens in regulation will be more challenging this week, he certainly looks to have a better chance than Ladbrokes give him.

Charles Howell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, BetFred and BetDirect
Howell is not a player who gets rusty in Augusta over the winter. His worst finish in this event has been 27th (2004) and on his debut in 2002 he finished 4th and last year, he finished 3rd just two shots behind the winner, Vijay Singh. And the fact that he is the joint course record holder is also in his favour. I personally wouldn't want to go much below 33/1 for a player who has yet to be convincing when faced with a chance to win on Tour, but I do think that this will be a breakout year for Howell.

Bart Bryant to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
He hung around long enough last week to make sure that the hopes of a place finish survived until the final nine holes, but it was his scrambling that let him down last week. He did rank 1st in greens in regulation after all and given that the wet, hilly course was not exactly ideal terrain for his recuperating knee, there are still plenty of positive to take from last week. Another is the fact that he finished in the top-10 last year having previously managed only one top-10 on the PGA Tour since June 2002. This is clearly a course that suits as he managed to rank 1st in driving accuracy and greens in regulation in this event last year and now riding a wave of confidence that was unthinkable twelve months ago, he really should be finishing in the top-10 again on this type of shotmaker's course.