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PICKS:
Outright
Betfair
Matchups
18H Matchups
Spreads
STATS: Tour Event In-Running
PROFILES: Players Event
Live Scoring
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Summary: Bets 5, Wins 1, Losses 4. Loss
10.8 Pts
Tournament Trades Buy Richard S. Johnson FP at 33 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts
M/U 24.5, Loss 5.1 Pts
2nd last week, and with current form here of 3/cut/6 suggests Johnson will be a popular pick. However, look into his results after a Top 10 and you come up with some startling results. In the last year, Johnson has finished in the Top 10 on five different occasions, his results in his following event have been cut/59th/cut/cut/cut. It suggests that Johnson struggles to put together a run of form and his best two week run in this last year has been a 14th at the US Bank followed by an 8th at the Buick Open. However, that 14th place was as high as he got that week when a good weekend took him from nowhere to the top 15 on Sunday night. Sporting Index go 36-39 and although that is of course value in relation to the information above I m reluctant to pay much more than low 30s purely because the standard of field this week is as poor as any event on this tour so far this year. Buy Tim Herron FP at 33 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts
M/U 18.5, Loss 8.7 Pts Although reluctant to take Johnson at Sporting, we have to trade Herron here. His best price elsewhere is 31 so we give up only two points to have the advantage of a possible return 25+ pts higher than is achievable on the alternative scoring system. Herron has not missed a cut here in 8 years and in that time has beaten 33 seven times but he hasn't come into any of those events as a previous weeks winner and that may or may not have some affect this week. Round One Trades Sell Shigeki Maruyama over Mark Brooks at 13 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 19, Loss 1.8 Pts Sell Aaron Baddeley over Mark Brooks at 10 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -22, Profit 9.6 Pts
We backed Brooks a few weeks ago as he seemed to be considered just
a little too much of an outsider in the prices offered. This week
seems a similar scenario where he only trails Baddeley 35-21-2 in
all rounds played in the last 18 months which does not equate to an
10-13 quote. Maruyama normally takes this as a rest week after
playing a heavy post Masters schedule so is also considered too high
at 13 with no course form to go on. A caveat has to be offered
though that Brooks would be better off not playing the St Jude as he
has missed his last 7 cuts here. However, everybody has their price
and to be honest i would back almost anyone on tour getting a double
figure start against the young Australian.
Buy Chris Di'Marco over Craig Parry at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -13, Loss 4.8 Pts Di Marco is backed at 3 as he is a far better player than Parry, but of course the current injury which has caused a bad loss of form is the reason for the offer. But, even allowing for that, he is still averaging just above 70 for R1 scoring since the Masters whereas Parry has not broken 70 in the 10 rounds he has played on this tour this year. |
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