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PICKS:
Outright
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Matchups
18H Matchups
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STATS: Tour Event In-Running
PROFILES: Players Event
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FINAL RESULT Toms (wd) was beaten by Els Immelman was beaten by Allenby by 1 Cink beat Mayfair (mc) Scott was beaten by Donald by 3 Quigley was beaten by Bjorn Weir beat Campbell (mc) Choi (mc) was beaten by Couples Furyk beat Singh by 2 Mickelson beat Woods (mc) Matchup bets: (All bets: Total Stake 3pts)
David Toms to beat Ernie Els +110 @ Paddy Power Els is still being priced up on reputation but his game doesn't justify favouritism here. Els is struggling badly at the moment and this is not the type of event where you want to try and rediscover your form. Toms has finished in the top 20 the last three starts in this event and despite a blemish of three missed cuts in four starts earlier this season his game is in fine condition. He is currently 2-2 with Els on the h2h's this season, but both times that Els came out victorious Toms had missed the cut. The stats show the real difference in form. This season Toms is currently ranked 17th for Driving Accuracy (Els is 108th), 53rd for GIR (Els is 124th) and 6th for Scoring Average (Els is 19th). Given Els's current average finishing position is over 10 places worse than Toms and Toms' all-round ability I make Toms a -120 shot here.
Was trying to find a matchup to support Immelman as he has all the credentials to do well this week and I guess this is the obvious choice. Immelman has been in terrific form of late with finishes of 11-2-2-6-7-13 and although his previous form at the US Open is not that impressive he is sitting 14th for GIR and 9th for Scoring Average so he should have the game to cope with the demands of the course. Allenby is currently suffering from a back injury and is only playing this week because it is the US Open. A short price but deserves to be even shorter given that every time that Immelman has made the cut this season he has beaten a fit Allenby.
Matchup bets: (All bets: Total Stake 2pts)
Stewart Cink to beat Billy Mayfair -110 @ BlueSq
The h2h's show demonstrate the class difference between Cink and Mayfair (3Y: 36-16-2; 1Y: 13-3-1; 3M: 6-1-0). He is in fine form with a 4th place finish at The Colonial and a 12th at The Memorial and he currently ranks 9th in scoring average on the tour this season. His record in this event is impressive and he should have won in 2001 but 3-putted the final green. He missed the cut in 2002 (the very long Bethgate State Park) and 2004 (links-styled Shinnecock Hills). Without those two missed cuts he has six top-10 finishes and undoubtedly has the game to put in a strong finish again this year. Mayfair also has a decent record in this event with three top-10 finishes, but has inferior recent form and does not have Cink's class. Take anything above -125. Adam Scott to beat Luke Donald +100 @ Skybet There are question marks surrounding both players with regard to their form in the bigger events. But despite Scott's relatively poor form in these events the facts are that in the last 12 months Scott outscored Donald in last years US Open, the 2005 Open Championship, this seasons Masters and this seasons Players Championship. In addition over the last 12 months he has defeated Donald in 9 out of 14 events and this season his only defeat to Donald in a 72 hole event was on the European Tour. Both players have solid recent form and both have got a great future in the game. But based on past evidence, allowing for his inferior performance in the major events, I would take anything above -115.
After starting the year very poorly with six missed cuts in his first nine starts Quigley has come come to life. His recent form is amazing with three top-10 finishes from his last four starts and last Monday he romped home in his qualifier for this event. In his last start in this event he finished 28th and is ranked 25th for GIR and 11th for scoring average on the tour this season. Bjorn is hardly the most consistent player around, he is not particularly accurate and his last three starts in this event have returned mc-mc-52. Take anything above -125.
Mike Weir to beat Chad Campbell -110 @ Bet365 While Scott and Donald typical struggle to find their true game in these big events there is no such problem with Weir. In the last two and half years Weir has competed in 14 majors and achieved six top-10 finishes (and an eleventh place finish). His recent form is consistent with some decent finishes and he has four top-20 finishes from seven starts in this event. His recent form is backed up by his recent h2h record where he leads Campbell 3-2-1 over the last 3 months and 12-5-3 in round by round h2h's over the same period. Campbell has some good finishes this season but he has missed the cut in two of his last four starts and four out of six starts in this event. This is another matchup where -125 and above should be taken. KJ Choi to beat Fred Couples -110 @ BetDirect
Couples has not had a great amount of success in this event previously with only two top-20 finishes from eight starts. Also his form has deteriorated badly, finishing 83rd last week in the Barclays Classic and even missing the cut at the Memorial, a tournament where he has such a great record. Choi finished 15th in this event last year and is again showing great consistency this season. He is currently ranked 24th for GIR (Couples 28th), 56th for Driving Accuracy (Couples 154th) and 33rd for Scoring Average (Couples 41st). He leads Couples 5-3-1 on the h2h's this season and given Couples current form he should be much shorter at around -130.
Jim Furyk to beat Vijay Singh +125 @ Pinnacle Given his return to the winners circle last week Singh justifies his favouritism tag, but the odds on Furyk are just too large to ignore. Furyk's game has been very solid this season while Singh could have just lost concentration recently (four finishesin a row outside the top-30) but the question marks it raises doesn't warrant him being at this price. Both have decent enough records from previous starts and I would take anything over +110 on Furyk.
Phil Mickelson to beat Tiger Woods +110 @ FiveDimes Given the lack of recent activity from Woods, he hasn't played since the Masters, playing on a course that could punish his sometimes wayward driving and that it is difficult to assess his current mental state it puts Mickelson into value territory. Mickelson has got preparing for majors perfected now and he has a great playing record in this area. No worries with recent form and a sound US Open record he has to be the pick. Impossible to assess what odds he should be but I just can't see the justification for him being the outsider here.
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