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PICKS:
Outright
Betfair
Matchups
18H Matchups
Spreads
STATS: Tour Event In-Running
PROFILES: Players Event
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Summary: Bets 8, Wins 3, Losses 5. Loss 26.4 Pts. Poor week on FP's where all 5 crept up the leaderboard steadily from Friday onwards. Tournament Trades Buy Luke Donald FP at 30 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts
M/U 12, Loss 10.8 Pts
Stanley tips Donald outright, and I advise an opposition of his FP quote. Who is right? Well, to be honest, both of us in my opinion. Donald is arguably the UK's greatest hope of a major and this is the one he is likeliest to win as the course setup should suit his game more than the others. So, if Donald's game is in this week he isn't the type of player to get altitude sickness on the Sunday leaderboards. However, his major record until now has been poor. On Sporting's scoring system his major average in 13 starts is 52 and in the US Open, admittedly on only two appearances it is 38. Most importantly though, 30 is too low when the range of possible M/Us is as much as 80 as opposed to the 50 you can get when buying at 28 elsewhere. Buy Trevor Immelman FP at 32 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 23, Loss 5.4 Pts Immelman is also an outright tip with Stanley but for me the price of 32 at IG makes him worth opposing even although buying his FP recently would have you paying a few cheques when your accounts came in. His majors record is also poor, with an average FP of 40 and a US Open record of cut/55. I appreciate that all 4 majors are as different as they come but the mental side of being in a major makes it worth examining a players' record over all 4. So, with respect given to his improvement in recent weeks 32 still seems low in this field for a player playing his 9th event in 11 weeks over two continents. Buy David Howell FP at 32 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 18, Loss 8.4 Pts Howell has a 28 FP average on this tour over 6 events played this year which is fair form but this is a major with an excellent field. The only field better this year was at Sawgrass where he finished 38th so 32 is a little low especially with an US Open scoring record of 78/81/74 in only three rounds played. IG Sport this week offer "double your money" if you sell the FP of the winner and therefore prices in some cases will be value to oppose. This is one of them. Buy Adam Scott FP at 27 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 23, Loss 2.4 Pts 27 seems a very low number for a player in a major who hasn't beaten the mark yet in 4 US Open appearances. Obviously the price is low as he is coming off of two very high finishes in a row, but in the times he has done this previously this year, which is twice, he has missed his next strokeplay cut. All in all, 24-27 is a price that arguably should be given to the likes of Goosen and Furyk who have done it in this championship. Scott still has a lot to prove. Buy Padraig Harrington FP at 33 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 5, Loss 16.8 Pts Since Harrington took time off for a family bereavement last summer, he has played in 9 full field PGA events. His average in that time is in the high 30's, mostly in poorer quality events than this. Whether these scores are related to the break we don't know but he is certainly not playing to the level that a quote of 33 implies. At the weekend he finished T36 in an event where he had won and placed 2nd in two previous visits. Harrington should therefore be traded at this price. Round One Trades Sell Tiger Woods
over Edoardo Molinari at 22 with
Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Profit 2.7 Pts
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