Summary: Bets 10, Wins 5, Losses 5. Profit 3 Pts

Tournament Trades

Buy Stephen Ames FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 23.5, Loss 6.3 Pts
34^th here in his only course appearance in 03’ Ames’s great run of form finally ended last week when he missed the cut at English Turn. With 10 of the Top 11 in the world here (all bar Woods), 34 is fair value to oppose him again.

Buy Stuart Appleby FP at 31 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 11.4 Pts
Our only blip last week on this tour, Appleby finished like a train to end up in the places. This continues a fair run of form, but as I stated last week it is impossible to keep up the average finishing position that Appleby has for the year. With the field quality high this week, 31 is worth trading on a player who has missed two of three cuts here.

Buy Tim Clark FP at 33 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 17, Loss 9.6 Pts
Similarly, Clark has missed two cuts also from the three times this event has been staged so is a fairly confident pick at 33. His recent form is good with two Top 10’s in a row but although that is more important than the course form, all these stats suggest he should be slightly higher than 33.

Buy Mike Weir FP at 31.5 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts (spread free) M/U 49, Profit 10.5 Pts
With the opportunity of playing Weir at a spread free price he becomes a good addition to the list of bets this week at 31.5. 2006 form is excellent with 22^nd the worst result in 4 but not unlike Appleby the prices reflect this and it needs to even out at some point. Weir missed the cut last year after finishing 21^st and 18^th in the events’ first two years.

Round One Trades 

Sell Lucas Glover over Jeff Sluman at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 25, Loss 6 Pts

Head to head’s from 05’ onwards sees a 36-32 round lead for Glover, which doesn’t translate to a price as high as quoted here. Tournament match bets sees a 14-11 lead. On current form Glover has Top 25’s in his last three starts so he is the likeliest winner of this match, but not as likely as the price implies.

Sell Phil Mickelson over Jason Bohn at 10 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 3 Pts

Another advice based on price alone. Mickelson leads Bohn 13-2 in events and 37-14 in round scoring since early 05’ but 10 is a fairly large handicap for Mickelson to overcome on a 10-3 scoring system against a player whose worst R1 score since the Mercedes in January is 73.

Sell Aaron Baddeley over Wes Short at 6 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U 22, Loss 4.8 Pts
Sell Retief Goosen over Wes Short at 12 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U 31, Loss 5.7 Pts
Short leads Baddeley 9-8 in R1 scoring, is just behind at 21-22 on all rounds but has won only 7 of 17 72H matches since January 2005. These results suggest that Short possibly starts a little quicker than Baddeley but of course even if its just a quirk of the numbers it shows that the Aussie player is being priced too heavily on recent successes. Goosen of course, being a Top 5 player, should be a heavy favourite over Short. However, 12 just seems a little too high and although it isn’t a great idea to support the outsider in two matches in the one three ball, at these prices we would make a profit long term.

Sell Sergio Garcia over Robert Gamez at 10 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 3 Pts

Sell Rich Beem over Robert Gamez at 6 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U -19, Profit 7.5 Pts

Gamez leads Beem 15-6 in tournaments, 12-5 in R1 scores and 32-17-7 in all rounds. Of course, the price is based on a big turnaround in Beem’s form but form is temporary as they say, and this price should be 1-4 at best. With Garcia, there is no obvious reasoning apart from the fact that 10 is just too high.