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FINAL RESULT Crane (mc) was beaten by Baddeley Johnson tied with DiMarco - void Baird (wd) was beaten by Herron ronberg was beaen by Wilson Verplank beat DiMarco (mc)
Bets: 5 Wins: 1 Losses: 3 Profit/Loss = -5.18pts
Matchup bets: (Total Stake: 3pts)
Ben Crane to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ Paddy Power
Baddeley steadily deteriorated last week to give us a winner and it can pay to oppose him again. We are dealing with another long course this week, never a good sign for Baddeley and he has had two starts here and missed the cut both times. Crane has missed the cut in his only start here but he should have the game for this course given his excellent short game and the small greens here. He also had an excellent 12th place finish last week, continuing his fine form of this season. He has defeated Baddeley on 10 out of 15 starts over the past 12 months and there's every likelihood that it will continue this week. It looks to me as there is still an over reaction to Baddeley's win of a couple of weeks ago as I make Crane much shorter than this at around -132 so very decent value here.
Matchup bets: (Total Stake: 2pts)
Zach Johnson to beat Chris DiMarco -102 @ Expekt Surprising to see that DiMarco has been made such a strong favourite for this one. DiMarco's form on this course is rather mixed with finishes of mc-47-43-mc-08-04-76. Admittedly Johnson has never played the course but there nothing to suggest that he won't cope with the course given that he is a top class ball striker with a decent short game. DiMarco's current form is poor and although his scoring occasionally indicates a return to form, as it did last week, I certainly wouldn't be comfortable backing him against the consistent Johnson at these odds. Johnson dominates the h2h's across all time periods (3 years: 19-15-2, 12 months: 9-5-0, 3 months: 4-1-0) and given the difference in recent form I don't see how the lack of Johnson's course experience can turn him into a -102 shot.
Briny Baird to beat Tim Herron -102 @ 5Dimes
There is little to separate these two in terms of long-term h2h's, but given the differences in previous course and current form it's surprising to see Herron as the favourite. Baird has shown that he has the ability to handle this course with a couple of top-25 finishes in the last 2 years. Herron's three attempts have resulted in a 38th place finish and two missed cuts. In addition, Herron's form this season hardly makes for inspiring reading with five missed cuts from nine starts. When he has made the cut he is managing an average FP of 31.4. Baird has only two missed cuts from nine starts and in his other seven starts he has beaten an FP of 31.4 on four occasions. By my reckoning it should be Baird who should be the -128 shot.
Matchup bets: (Total Stake: 2pts)
Mathias Gronberg to beat Dean Wilson -110 @ SportingOdds
What we have here is a matchup of players of contrasting form. Gronberg's form on the PGA tour is beginning to pick up with recent finishes of 16-15-52-04. Meanwhile Wilson's form has deteriorated recently after a promising start to the season with a best placed finish of 77th in his last three starts. Gronberg had an encouraging 25th placed finish when the event was last held here two years ago. Wilson has two starts here, in 2004 he finished 54th and in 2003 he missed the cut. Wilson narrowly beats Gronberg on the h2h's, though this is hardly inspiring given that Gronberg's form on the tour has historically been very poor. Given Gronberg's improved form, Wilson's deteriorating form and Gronberg's superior course form I believe he should be around -133 for this matchup.
Scott Verplank to beat Chris DiMarco -110 @ Intertops / Bet365 I'm loathed to have multiple oppositions against the same player but I can't resist with this one. I've written about DiMarco above and of course Verplank is an old friend to us. He has seven top 25 finishes out of nine starts this season and decent previous course form of 15-mc-72-30-43-09-03-54. His h2h record with DiMarco reads 3 years: 27-13-3, 12 months: 11-3-0, 3 months: 5-0-0 and 3-1-0 at the English Turn course. FiveDimes price of -140 is spot on by my reckoning. This should probably be a 3pt bet but settling for 2pts as we have already opposed DiMarco elsewhere.
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