Summary: Bets 7, Wins 2, Losses 5. Profit 38.08 Pts

Tournament Trades

Buy Stephen Ames FP at 31 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 72, Profit 24.6 Pts
There is no getting away from the fact that since Woods gave Ames an embarrassing heavy defeat in the Matchplay that Ames’ season has turned round incredibly. 20/7/1/11 in four top class events is excellent form but that is fully factored into the price and the above quote puts Ames at a status level that he is arguably not at. The price is low due to those results and also the fact he has a top 10 on the course when it was last used 2 years ago.

Buy Stuart Appleby FP at 31 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 5, Loss 15.6 Pts
We are opposing last weeks winner in both events but I don’t think that the win will affect Appleby as much as Castano. Apples is opposed purely on price because like Ames the price is a little low. Appleby’s average this year on FP is around 23 but it would take an incredible season from here on in to sustain that number. Arguably he should be around 34 but is 31 as not only is he last weeks’ winner but has fair form on the course with a 16^th place in 03’.

Buy Tom Pernice Jr FP at 33 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 10.2 Pts
Another player having a great season with Top 30’s in his last 6 events. Pernice averages 28 for the season so far but like Appleby will do well to sustain this number. His form unlike Ames and Appleby doesn’t stand out on this course having missed the cut in 04’ and a finish of T25 in 03’.

Buy Ben Crane FP at 34 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 9.6 Pts

Crane has had an injury affecting his season so far so has only appeared in 6 stroke play events with finishes of 25(28 man field)/30/wd/36/cut/12. So, although Crane is a better player than these results suggest, 33.5 is a good price considering he has still to show the level of form that deserves a quote in the low 30’s.

Buy Zach Johnson FP at 32 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 50, Profit 10.8 Pts

A 15^th at Doral and 2^nd at the Bellsouth are the only bright spots for Zach this year so far in stroke play events. This equates to an average FP of 36 in 8 events and with this being his first visit to the course it would suggest 32 is a fair bet.

Round One Trades

Sell Lucas Glover over Jeff Sluman 18H MB at 5.2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 1.48 Pts
Head to heads with these two players sees scores very close recently. 35-31 in rounds and 13-11 in events over 16 months suggests that 5.2 is quoting Glovers’ expected superiority just a little too much.

Sell Lee Westwood over Bernhard Langer 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Loss 3 Pts
Westwood has had a good year on this tour but even although he is probably now a better player than Langer there is arguably not as much as 3pts difference between them on this scoring system. Westwood has had two Top 5’s this year but his other finishes have been 55/38/cut whereas Langer, although no Top 5’s has had finishes of 10^th and 16^th in 9 starts and is possibly just a little more consistant.