FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Weir mc
Watney 42nd
Sabbatini mc

A golden opportunity wasted by Watney. He held the lead after the first round and then played Pebble Beach on the best day by far - it played more than three shots easier in the 2nd round than it of the other course rotation days - but he played very poorly, particularly on the greens and was never in contention again.

Outright plays (total stake play: 1pt)

Mike Weir to win 22/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
Not exactly original given that he has finished in the top-5 in each of the last four years in this event, but it should also be remembered that he is more generally a pro-am specialist rather than an event specialist. He won the 2003 Bob Hope Chrysler Classic and that started a run of six top-5 finishes in his last ten pro-am events. By any mark, that should point to value at 22/1. He has introduced some swing changes over the off-season and so it may take time for his desired consistency to materialise, but he shot no worse than 70 in every round last week and played particularly well on Sunday to be 6-under-par for the round apart from a double-bogey on the 17th hole. If he plays as well again this week, he should record his fifth consecutive top-5 finish in this event.

Nick Watney to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
The odds are certainly tumbling each week on this Californian, but as I price him at 40/1 there still remains some value left for one more week. For all that he is capable of recording a high proportion of top-10 finishes (for this stage in his career), as pointed out last week, his form in pro-ams is just as noteworthy. Not only did he finish 7th last year (and had been 3rd, 6th and 4th at the end of the first three rounds), but he finished 13th in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic three weeks ago, 5th in the FUNAI Classic in October and had he shot no worse than 68 in the 2nd round of last year's Bob Hope Chrysler Classic (as he did in his other rounds in the first four days), he would have finished in the top-5 that week as well. His collegiate record suggests that he will seize his opportunity to win when it fully materialises, but for now, the place odds are attractive enough.

Rory Sabbatini to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James
For such a fast player, Sabbatini is an unlikely pro-am specialist. However, when he finished 2nd in this event last year, it was the THIRD time that he had been runner-up in a pro-am this decade. And for comparison with Weir, he has finished in the top-10 six times in his last eleven pro-am events. Not quite as high a ratio and top-10 rather than top-5, but he is available at triple the odds. Consistency has never been one of Sabbatini's strengths so his recent form is not a concern, though it should be helpful that, like Weir, he was six-under-par for his round on Sunday, bar the 17th hole, so should come into this event in good confidence. And 66/1 is certainly much too high.