Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Bet 1 - Buy Aaron Baddeley FP at 41 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.6 Pts M/U 21.5, Loss 11.7 Pts
Twice Badds has played this course and on both occasions he has failed to make the weekend and also failed to break par in 5 rounds. Admittedly one of those two visits was a US Open which would have been a harder setup than the normal setup for the Pro-Am but he still struggled here in that one visit as well. Badds is one of these players who when everything clicks he can perform well and seems fearless on a weekend but when his swing is out slightly he can rack up some big numbers. His cut missing % is 40% which is fairly high for a player who is now a multiple winner on tour.

Bet 2 - Buy Bubba Watson FP at 43 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.6 Pts M/U 46.5, Profit 2.1 Pts
Another player with limited, but poor form nonetheless, on this course. Watson missed the cut scoring 73/70/74 in his only visit last year and although he has put in a couple of Top 10's in his last two starts, his cut % is worse than Badds, and his record generally on this tour so far is poor averaging 46 in 2006. With the largest field and the smallest cut line of full field events during the season, both players are value at their respective prices.

Bet 3 - Buy Harrison Frazar over Justin Leonard 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Profit 3.45 Pts
An 11-6 H2H record in favour of Frazar is more a condemnation of Leonard who has fell away quite sharply in form over the past couple of years and it is a little surprising that Sporting Index can't split them. Leonard's average score is nearly a stroke higher now than his average over 3 years worth of results and his most recent form is really poor with 2 missed cuts this year in two starts and no sub 70 rounds. Frazar has made three cuts from three and finished Top 10 at the other Pro-Am so far this year, the Bob Hope.

Bet 4 - Sell Sean O'Hair over Tom Lehman 18H MB at -1.5 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U -28, Profit 7.95 Pts
O'Hair has missed both cuts this year and is paired with a player with a 9-5 lead over him over the last year and form at Pebble Beach of 42/2/25/cut/7 over the last 5 years. Lehman deserves to be clear favourite by a couple of points even if he has equally poor form so far this season. The course form and the long term H2H form means we should be with the former Ryder cup captain.

Bet 5 - Sell Daniel Chopra over Charley Hoffman 18H MB at -1.5 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.45 Pts
A 14-9 R1 lead for Hoffman, who is, I suppose, the current Pro-Am champion having won at the "Hope" a few weeks ago. This shouldn't be taken lightly as pro-am events are a totally different animal to normal events and some players seem to play well regularly in these weeks where rounds are longer and concentration on your own game is severely tested. Course form is admittedly with Chopra with three Top 25's here in three starts but Hoffman was arguably feeling his way in to being a PGA tour player in his 64th place last year after sporadic appearances on invites over the years previous.

Bet 6 – Sell Jim Furyk over Vijay Singh 72H MB at 6.4 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.6 Pts. M/U 2, Profit 2.64 Pts
Furyk leads by 6 currently and although allowances has to be made for missing the cut, Singh is possibly being under-rated in the price issued today by Sporting for this matchup. Singh has 4 Top 10’s in 6 years here whereas Furyk generally struggles with finishes of 30/5/29/27 in his last 4 appearances. Arguably, this price should be around 5.

Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am