FINAL RESULT: 1-1; +1.00pts

Rose 3rd
Poulter 60th
Perez dns

What a wasted opportunity ... five clear during the fourth round and three clear at the start of the final round, Rose rally should have won this event.

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Justin Rose to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, William Hill and Ladbrokes
Rose has the opportunity to take over where Luke Donald fell short last week. His compatriot had a great chance for victory last week, but looked very shaky in the final round and while that was also the case with Rose in a few tournaments on the PGA Tour last year, there is a new optimism that the events of the last couple of months will help him if he faces the same pressure again this week. After winning opportunities in the Deutsche Bank Championship, Canadian Open, Texas Open and FUNAI Classic (he opened with 60 that week), he held onto the lead all weekend and won the MasterCard Masters in Australia in November and then got married in December. So having finished in the top-10 last year and become a very regular contender in the last three months of 2006, there is plenty of confidence that he will start this season in style.

Ian Poulter to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler, Ladbrokes, Tote and Boyle Sports
Poulter is another who played particularly well in the last three months of 2006 and, like his close friend, is making his 2007 debut in an event in which he already has a top-10 finish. That was in his previous appearance in 2005 and he can also count other high finishes in California, particularly in the World Matchplay event, and in the European Tour's pro-am event, the Dunhill Links Championship. He clearly plays well in these types of events and in warmer climates and there should be value in these odds.

Pat Perez to win 100/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Ladbrokes and Tote
Last year's 73rd place finish doesn't sound very impressive, but it is worth recalling that he shot 60 in the opening round at the Arnold Palmer course at PGA West. It was going to be difficult to follow such a low round (and no 1st round leader has won this event in the last eleven years) and the 30mph winds the following day didn't help him maintain his swing. It wasn't the first time that he has shot low in this event - he shot 61 around Bermuda Dunes in 2003 - or in a pro-am event - he finished a famous (for the wrong reasons!) 2nd in the 2002 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, so, despite his exuberance on the course, he can still play very well in testing pro-am conditions. And now having fully recovered from the tendonitis that wrecked his season after finishing 3rd in last year's Players Championship, he is back with a top-10 finish in the Sony Open. He should be set for at least one very low round this week.