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PICKS:
Outright
Betfair
Matchups
18H Matchups
Spreads
STATS: Tour Event In-Running
PROFILES: Players Event
Live Scoring
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Please note that this season, all four firms will be betting to the same FP rules, which is the amendment that Sporting Index had gone out on their own with during 2006.
For bets on finishing positions, the position of a player who misses the cut will be deemed the number of players who make the first official cut in tournament + 1, unless stated otherwise. If a player tees off but subsequently misses the cut, withdraws or is disqualified, his finishing position will make up at the number of players who make the first official cut in tournament + 1. Part-played rounds do not count.
Bets: 5, Wins 3, Losses 2. Profit 2.5 Pts Bet 1 - Sell Tiger Woods over Rory Sabbatini 72H MB at 11.25 with Sporting Index for 0.6 pts (Matchmakers facility). M/U 8, Profit 1.95 Pts (can't remember ever winning on a player who missed the cut over one who didn't) Sabbatini has had one bad year here in the last 5 where he missed the cut. In the other four he finished 5/28/21/16 and has results in California of 9/10/16/2/1 in his last 5 starts. Woods, meanwhile is on a run of 6 Tour wins and has won here the last two years so is highly expected to contend again of course. However, 11.25 strokes in a 25 limit market seems an under estimation of Sabbatini's chances and it is worth taking this bet on. What we are effectively doing is backing Sabbatini to have a good week and his stats certainly suggest that is more possible than the price implies.
Bet 2 - Buy Duffy Waldorf over John Daly 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 pts M/U 16, Profit 4.4 Pts Head to heads in 06 seen results in Duffy's favour of 8-2-1 Tournament and 7-2-2 in R1 alone. Daly, of course, has won here and finished 4th in the last 5 years but his other results have been 72nd and 63rd. Waldorf was 18th last week in the "Hope" and has two Top 5's in his visits here over 10 years. This price seems to lean heavily on Daly's course form which seems wrong. Bet 3 - Buy Brett Quigley over Shigeki Maruyama 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 pts M/U 25, Profit 7.1 Pts Head to heads in 06' sees a 14-5 result in favour of Quigley and with course form of three top 20's in a row, Quigley should arguably be clear favourite. Maruyama also has good course form finishing 4th 3 years ago and making every cut here but the h2h form is too wide a gap to suggest that 1.5 is too low. Bet 4 - Sell Troy Matteson over Rory Sabbatini 18H MB at 0 with IG Sport for 0.3 pts M/U 25, Loss 7.5 Pts With these two players, we have another lop sided set of 2006 results with Sabbatini winning 9 of 14 events they both participated in and 8 of 14 R1 matches with 3 ties. It's noticeable as well that Matteson did not win any of these matches in the first half of the year, Sabbatini of course got off to a flyer last year and led the money list for a stage. R3 Bet 5 - Sell Tiger Woods over Vijay Singh 72H MB at 6.25 with Sporting Index for 0.6 pts M/U 12, Loss 3.45 Pts Woods currently leads Singh by 3 so with 36 holes to go a price of 6.25 seems a tad high even allowing for the fact that Woods has a far better record in this event than his opponent.
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