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0-4; -4.00pts Further outright play (total stake: 1pt) Robert Garrigus to win 100/1
e.w. @
Coral
mc
Had been hoping to find either 100/1 available on Garrigus or six places at 80/1
and both arrived on Tuesday, so will opt for the former. Not only does this
course set up well for the big-hitting Garrigus and the fact that his 3rd place
finish last week took him off the 'bubble', but there is a local connection that
is very strong. He is a Gilbert resident and so lives just a few miles from the
course, plus he has played the course about 50 times dating back to his days
playing for Scottsdale Community College. When the course is being used for the
first time on Tour, such home advantage is particularly strong. In fact, he is
now so confident after last week's event that he is aiming to lift himself into
the top-70 on the Money List (currently 77th) in order to gain entry into the
Invitational events next year. If he is to succeed in that aim, this week looks
his best opportunity to gain another high finish. Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt) Bo Van Pelt to win 40/1 e.w.
@
Stan James
44th
Was a place winner last week and is retained with many of the leading players
returning to Tour golf after a month away. Sure enough, he doesn't convert his
chances to win, but he still ranks 20th in Scoring Average on this Tour and, in
terms of when it matters most, he ranks 5th in 3rd round scoring average and 3rd
in final round scoring average on Tour. So even he can be counted upon to put in
a strong performance and get close to a place finish even if out of contention
for the win, as shown by his top-20 finishes in his last four starts. But that
is not enough when they are competing on a new course for this Tour (a few
unofficial events in the 1990s excepted). In terms of his form in the desert,
his 5th place finish last week was in Nevada and he had a top-10 finish in
Tucson last year, but it is also in terms of Tom Fazio-designed courses that
looks a good bet to contend again this week. At last year's Wachovia
Championship at Quail Hollow, he held the 36-hole lead and ultimately finished
6th. He may be a better player to back in a place-only market, but these odds
won't last.
Charley Hoffman to win 50/1 e.w. @
Paddy Power,
SkyBet,
Stan James
and
Boyle Sports
mc
He couldn't backed at 25/1 last week, there are just as many reasons for him to
be similarly priced this week, so I'll take him at 50/1 (though I wouldn't at
lower odds). He had been in great form with top-25 finishes in his previous four
starts, threatening to finish very high on the leaderboard on occasion, and had
been well-placed (16th) after one round last week, so it is easy to overlook his
2nd round 74 and subsequent missed cut. In terms of his form in Arizona, he
finished 9th in Tucson last year and had finished 6th and 18th in a Nationwide
Tour event in this State in the previous two years, and in terms of his
abilities around Tom Fazio's famously complex courses, he finished 5th around
Atunyote only three weeks ago. Assuming that his form hasn't deserted him with
one bad round, he seems just as likely to contend this week as last. Bill
Haas to win 55/1 e.w. @
Bet365
51st
Fazio courses set up well in terms of risk/reward and this one is no different
with generous fairways and shallow rough and that should suit these players and
Haas in particular who is one of the longest hitters on Tour. He may have
spurned an excellent opportunity for a place finish last week, finishing 21st,
but he had finished 3rd in his previous event, the Viking Classic, and the week
before, he had finished 10th around the Fazio-designed Atunyote course. And that
is not his only impressive finish around a Fazio course: he held the 1st round
lead in last year's Wachovia Championship, finishing 4th, in his rookie season
on the PGA Tour (his best finish of the year) and he finished 22nd the year
before when playing on a sponsor's invitation. So long as Mickelson is not on
top of his game around a course that suits, at least one of these three should
be in contention over the weekend. |
STATS: Tour Event In-Running
