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Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

   

The Masters

 Spread Betting News (Sporting Index)

Summary:  Bets 9: Wins: 7 Losses: 2, Profit 25.56 Pts.

Bet 1 - Sell Henrik Stenson over Luke Donald 72H MB at 0.65 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.6 Pts M/U -2, Profit 1.59 Pts
A 10-3 H2H over the last year and a 3rd here in 05' suggests to me that Donald is fair value at 0.65 strokes of a start here against the "popular" pick of the masses. Donald had a disappointing start to the season but has shown signs of a return to form with finishes of 8th and 26th in his two recent starts in Florida. Stenson missed his first Masters cut and i'm not convinced on his putting on these greens.

Bet 2 - Sell Phil Mickelson over Geoff Ogilvy 72H MB at 4.45 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.6 Pts M/U 0, Profit 2.67 Pts
I was hoping to find a play for Ogilvy as he is my outright fancy if Woods doesn't prevail. You can get a 8.65 stroke start over Woods or this 4.45 stroke over the defending champion. Preference is for the latter, only just, and it is because you can almost guarantee Woods will be in the mix. Mickelson has a bit to prove on current form with finishes of 45/54/cut/1/2/36/23 in his stroke-play starts this season. This isn't particularly hot and Ogilvy leads him 7-4 in H2H's over the last year including beating him by 5 at Bay Hill and 6 in the WGC CA event in Miami two weeks ago. 16th in his first start last year, Ogilvy has to equal or better that probably to contend in this bet as Mickelson has an average FP here of 6 since he missed the cut in 97'. However, I believe with over a stroke a round we are on a good bet.

Bet 3 - Sell Tiger Woods over Vijay Singh 72H MB at 5.5 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 5, Profit 0.3 Pts
After admitting Woods is more than likely to be in the mix come Sunday evening, I am suggesting opposing him with Singh. We are though, supporting a player with form figures here of 1/18/7/6/6/5/8 in the last 7 years, and in that time he has finished ahead of Woods in 3 of those 7 years averaging a M/U of -1.9 in that time. It is risky to oppose Woods with anyone round here but I would rather do so with someone with those results, a player who is the only other to win more than once this year and the player who leads the new Fedex Cup standings going into this week.

Bet 4 - Sell Chad Campbell over J.J. Henry 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U -28, Profit 9.6 Pts
A case can be made on course form where Campbell's 17/3 record over the last two years is good, although he did miss his first two cuts. All the players say you need experience here and maybe he needed those two cut misses. He is of course paired with a debutant here so why oppose him, the reason, as always, is price. 4-7 is high on players with a 8-8 R1 record over 12 months and 1-4 would be a far fairer price.

Bet 5 - Buy Arron Oberholser over Niclas Fasth 18H MB at 4 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U 19, Profit 4.5 Pts
A fair debut for Oberholser last year, finishing 14th and he is paired with Fasth who has 10 missed cuts in 11 US starts and has a Masters record of 76/75/81/73 in his two starts where he missed the cut on both occasions.

Bet 6 - Sell Colin Montgomerie over Bernhard Langer 18H MB at -0.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U 16, Loss 4.95 Pts
4th in 2004, Langer has the recent course form and a Top 10 recently on this tour to put up against Monty who has a best 8th in 15 years here and below average 07' PGA form of 45th and 55th in Orlando and Miami respectively.

Bet 7 - Sell Miguel Angel Jimenez over Jeff Sluman 18H MB at 5 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U -19, Profit 7.2 Pts
Slu has seen better days but with a Masters record of one Top 10 and 6 cuts made in 8 attempts, it's not bad and he seems to be underpriced against Jimenez. The Spaniard does of course have good course form himself but 5 is just too high.

Bet 8 - Buy Brett Quigley over Hideto Tanihara 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index / Bet HiLo for 0.3 Pts M/U 37, Profit 9.6 Pts
Lillian Sage Augusta Quigley was born yesterday to Mr and Mrs Quigley and the overjoyed dad has skipped back to Augusta where he has a late tee time Thursday to get over his celebrating. It's a debutants match up here and we will get on the "nappy factor" supporting the American against Tanihara who has PGA form of cut/cut/70 this year and who may finds himself struggling in his first start. Quigley does have good putting stats and he seems low at 5.

R2

Bet 9 - Buy Charles Howell over Justin Rose 18H MB at 1.5 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Loss 5.25 Pts 
20 putts for Rose told it's own story, you can turn that round and say he took 49 shots approaching the greens when the average is around 42-44. That isn't to say he didn't play well, he did. However, everything fell into place yesterday and I see today as an attempt at consolidating his place as near to the top of the board as possible. Howell didn't play too badly yesterday and at the prices I would have happily taken this if offered yesterday, so with Rose producing a round that was a little freakish I think we have a value bet at "choice".