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PICKS:
Outright
Betfair
Matchups
18H Matchups
Spreads
STATS: Tour Event In-Running
PROFILES: Players Event
Live Scoring
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Summary: 5 Bets, 3 Wins, 2 Losses. Profit 55.8 Pts. Bet 1 - Sell Charl Schwartzel over Jesper Parnevik 18H MB at 2 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U 25, Loss 6.9 Pts Schwartzel continues to struggle in the few opportunities he gets on this tour, with a best placed 48th in 8 starts. His only 07' appearance so far was a 58th place at Sawgrass. Parnevik this year has struggled but has three top 40 places and although that is poor, he shouldn't be a 2pt underdog against Schwartzel. Bet 2 - Sell Paul Casey over Stephen Marino 18H MB at 5 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.4 Pts Casey is strangely priced this week on the spreads with a fairly low FP quote in relation to players who arguably should be lower. He is also high at 5 over Marino given that his last PGA appearance was a 76/78 MC at Sawgrass whilst Marino was 6th at Sugarloaf 2 weeks ago and followed up with a 24th place finish at Colonial. Bet 3 - Buy Phil Mickelson FP at 17 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts WD M/U 74, Profit 34.2 Pts Bet 4 - Buy Zach Johnson FP at 31 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts WD M/U 74, Profit 25.8 Pts In both cases here we are betting purely on price. Opposing the two players who have won this season's two biggest events to date would seem like a rash decision but everything has its price. Mickelson has averaged 25 over 10 starts this year and Johnson 35 playing the same amount of events. Yes, this is a limited field but it is a top class field. Both have good course form but even making allowances for that they should be 3-4pts higher than the quote offered. Bet 5 - Buy Jerry Kelly FP at 39 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 47.5, Profit 5.1 Pts An average course FP of 9 points higher than this weeks quote is an example of how Kelly has become a far better player this year. We have opposed him on a few occasions and generally done our cash but I feel that maybe his price is still tradeable. Current form shows 5 Top 10's in 7 events but also, this year alone, he has had a run of 5 cuts missed in 6 events and no matter the improvement in his game, the price of 39 more than absorbs the recent run.
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