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Outright Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: Outright

 
 
Mercedes Championships
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FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -1.46pts

Ogilvy 19th
Love 4th
Pampling 22nd

There's always frustration when backing Davis Love and this week was no exception. He had plenty of chances to challenge for this event, but spurned enough to earn only a three-way share of 4th place. Ogilvy was poor throughout and Pampling was a winner this week ... though only in the pro-am event!

 

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Geoff Ogilvy to win 14/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Tote
Had been tempted by Vijay Singh and Adam Scott, but while the Fijian has been extremely consistent in Hawaii, he has yet to win this event and Scott ranked 176th of 196 in '3-Putt Avoidance' on the PGA Tour last year ... relevant as these are, by far, the largest greens that these golfers will play on all year. Ogilvy ranked a much more respectable 56th in that category last year, but is favoured largely for his impressive form during the PGA Tour 'off-season', which, aided by a return to warmer climes in Australia, has led him to be far better prepared for this event than most of his Northern Hemisphere colleagues. Not only did he dispel any competitive rustiness with strong performances in his home country - 2nd in the Australian Open and 8th in the Australian PGA Championship - but it took one of Tiger's best-ever final round performances to wrest the Target World Challenge away from him a week before Christmas. Appleby may be trying for the four-peat this week, but there is certainly a very strong contingent that will be trying to keep this title in Australian hands.

Davis Love to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Love may be one player to prevent that. In his own words, "I wanted the Ryder Cup so bad that I let it get in the way of everything else I was doing" and it is clear from his results. Having failed to record a single top-10 finish in a strokeplay event thus far in 2006, after the Ryder Cup team was announced on the Monday, Love would finish 4th in the WGC Bridgestone Invitational on the Sunday and would then finish 1st, 5th and 27th in his remaining three events on the PGA Tour. Now, again in his own words, he can't wait for the 2007 season to get started and where better than at the Plantation Resort in Maui. He is a former winner of this event (1993) and was a two-time winner on this course in the Lincoln-Mercury Kapalua Invitational. Those victories may be a few years ago now, but a rejuvenated Love should be at shorter odds than this in Hawaii.

Rod Pampling to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Pampling has not had the same success in Hawaii, but finished a creditable 19th on his course debut last year (only one player has won on his course debut on this course - Sergio Garcia) and the best part of his game is certainly his putting which will be very important this week. He has played solidly in Australia over the last month or so and he did win the Merrill Lynch Shootout with Jerry Kelly in November. With this event missing Tiger Woods and rookies accounting for almost half of the field, there should some value in Pampling at 40/1 in this event.