Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Bets 7, Wins 4, Losses 3. Result: +25.71 Pts.

R1

Sell Eric Axley over Dean Wilson 72H MB at -0.5 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 6, Loss 3.9 Pts
First bet of the new year on a local player who averages nearly a full stroke lower than his opponent on tour but is somehow considered a slight outsider. Wilson comes from Hawaii but actually has a very poor record in the Sony Open, his only PGA starts on the island. He has, though, won 4 local events a few years back admittedly against far inferior opposition. The weather this year is expected to be a little windy and growing up here should surely give Wilson an advantage in that scenario against Axley. Axley was 1st and 3rd in two late season events, but in 27 other events his best other finish was 24th. Wilson beat 24th 11 times which included 4 top 10's. Wilson should be clear favourite.

Buy Davis Love over D. J. Trahan 18H MB at 5.2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts. M/U 37, Profit 9.06 Pts.
Love has form of 8/16/9 in three visits here and his form picked up dramatically towards the end of the year after a quiet spell. He gives up just over 5 pts to Trahan who bar his win, posted only three other Top 25's in 32 starts. I'm surprised Love isn't at least 5-8 here.

Sell Geoff Ogilvy over Kirk Triplett 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 13, Loss 1.5 Pts
This is one of these bets where it is very difficult to make a case for supporting Triplett other than the price being too high. Bar his win in Tucson it was a horrendous year for "Captain" but in the 6 events both Ogilvy and Triplett played, he has lost only 9 of 19 rounds with an average M/U of 2.35 to Ogilvy. This shows that Ogilvy, despite some great results can throw in a few bad scores occasionally.

Sell Aaron Baddeley over Stephen Ames 18H MB at -1.5 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts M/U -34, Profit 9.75 Pts
Head to head's sees Ames lead 7-5 in all events in 06' and 18-10 in rounds played. Ames is 44 places above Badds in the world rankings and has a FP average over 10 places lower over 3 years. Ames also averaged over 1 stroke per round better than Baddeley in 06' and over 3 years it's nearer 2 strokes. Arguably, Ames should be 1-4 favourite.

Sell Eric Axley over Will Mackenzie 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -37, Profit 11.1 Pts

Playing on a strange quirk of the stats here as Axley leads Mackenzie 16-10 in the events they both played in last year but stripping it down to R1 only, Mackenzie leads 15-8-3 with an average MU in Mackenzie's favour of 6.5. In all further rounds, Axley leads 20-15-6 suggesting Axley is a slow starter, borne out by Axley only beating 70 6 times in R1 compared to Mackenzie's 12 times.

Sell Corey Pavin FP at 23 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 28, Loss 3 Pts
Stats on all the players suggests that Pavin is arguably a couple of points too high at Spreadfair's 23. With wind forecast his shot shaping ability can come to the fore and it is noticeable that some players in the last couple of years have shot really big numbers whilst not coping with the conditions Hawaiian golf can bring. Pavin may not need to perform at his best to beat the quote.

R2

Sell Brett Wetterich over Aaron Baddeley 72H MB at 10 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 3, Profit 4.2 Pts
Coming into this event I would have priced Wetterich a slight favourite but the stats from R1 suggest that he shouldn't now be considered 2 strokes better from hereon in. Wetterich finished R1 #1 in Greens hit with Baddeley last in the same category. A closer contest tonight in approach play could see the gap between them diminish.

Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

Mercedes Championships