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Outright Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: Outright

 
 
PGA Championship
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1-4; -0.33pts

Further plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Tim Clark to finish in the top-ten 6/1 @ William Hill  mc
Have been looking for ways to back Clark and 4/1 to be Top South African looked favourite, but he will probably need to finish in the top-10 to win that group, so have settled on this market. With finishes of 2nd, 2nd and 6th in his last three starts, he is certainly playing well enough to finish in the top-10 this week and in terms of the Colonial angle, he was the halfway leader this year. He has managed a top-3 finish in a Major in each of the last two years, so there should be good value in these odds.

Scott Verplank to finish in the top-ten 6/1 @ William Hill  9th
The home favourite who is more familiar with this course than all but a handful of players this week. Like Clark, he is the perfect fairways and greens player whose lack of length off the tee will not be an issue this week and comes into the event in very good form: he has finished in the top-10 in each of his last five starts in the U.S., including the U.S. Open and the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial in May. I just can't see him winning a major, so the top-10 market appears the most appropriate for Verplank.

Kenny Perry to finish in the top-ten 6/1 @ William Hill  23rd
Twice a winner, plus one 2nd place, in the last six years at Colonial, a top-15 finish in each of his last six starts and 4th on this course in 1996 (he didn't play in the 2001 U.S. Open here) ... these are good stats for this event. He did disappoint on Sunday when in a very promising situation with 18 holes to play, so it may be less frustrating just to back him place-only, particularly in a Major.

 

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Jim Furyk to win 22/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, BetFred and Boyle Sports [6 places]  mc
Withdrew from the Bridgestone Invitational last Thursday morning due a tightening of his back, but he has said that his back has improved under treatment and the hope is that it will not be a factor this week. He withdrew from the Barclays Classic last season after injuring his back in a skins game, but the week's rest did him good the following week as he finished 2nd in the U.S. Open to Geoff Ogilvy. A repeat would be profitable. Indeed, it is strange to see so many of the leading players competing the week before a Major and on such a tough course setup. That can only work to Furyk's advantage if fit. The final factor, apart from his form which reads five top-5 finishes in his last seven starts including a win last time out, is the Colonial factor ... that course was re-designed by Perry Maxwell in the 1940s and he also built Southern Hills. A strong link between high finishes at Southern Hills and high recent finishes at Colonial has been established elsewhere (bettingzone.co.uk) and Furyk fits that angle very nicely having been a playoff loser at Colonial in May.

K.J. Choi to win 35/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power [6 places]  12th
One of the hottest players on the PGA Tour having won two of his previous three starts before the British Open where he finished 8th, having been in contention throughout, and he then continued that good form last week at Firestone where he finished 11th. Little wonder that his price has been falling quickly this week and while 40/1 is still available, there should be better value in these lower odds, but better place terms at Paddy Power. Notable in his recent form has been a big improvement in his driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats. On this short course with penal Bermuda rough, that ability to keep the ball on the short grass should be very important and places a greater emphasis on the iron play (rather than the power play on many newer PGA Tour course), in which Furyk and Choi are some of the better exponents. He has finished 6th and 7th in two of the last three years in this event (as well as top-25 at Colonial in each of the last three years) and should threaten to post another leaderboard finish on this course.