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Summary: 9 Bets, 7 Wins, 2 Losses. Profit 44.14 Pts. Bet 1 - Buy Kenny Perry over Niclas Fasth 72H MB at 0.75 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts (Using "My Matchmakers") M/U 3, Profit 1.35 Pts Perry leads 4-1 in H2Hs and has a far superior current form record, where he hasn't been out the top 15 in his last 6 starts. He also has good course form albeit going back to 1996 when 4th in the Tour Championship played here. Fasth, as we admitted last week, is improving in this country but even allowing for this his numbers don't justify being a "choice" price when paired with Perry. Bet 2 - Buy Adam Scott FP at 40 with Spreadex for 0.6 Pts M/U 14.5, Loss 14.1 Pts A poor run of form for Scott with finishes of cut/cut/27/36 in his last four starts and he seems a bit of value at 40 to oppose even although his form in this major is better than it is in the other 3. Bet 3 - Buy Padraig Harrington FP at 35 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts. M/U 45.5, Profit 6.3 Pts The Open winner done well last week to finish 14th after not playing much golf since Carnoustie but 35 just seems to over estimate his chances this week. His PGA record is cut/17/29/45/cut/cut giving an average FP of 54 over the last 6 years and in his last 5 tour starts not including last week's WGC he has failed to better 43rd place.
Bet 4 - Buy Joe Durant over Johan Edfors 18H MB at 1.5 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U 34, Profit 9.75 Pts Edfors' record on US soil is pretty bleak. Finishes of cut/28/cut/62/cut in 5 starts with only one round under 70 in 10 attempts show that he is yet to take to this area and he is pitched at "choice" against a player coming off of a 14th place in the Brdgestone at the weekend. Edfors certainly hasn't reached the heights of last year and in 16 starts worldwide in 07' has missed 7 cuts, lost in R1 of the matchplay and achieved only 3 Top 25's with none of them Top 10. Durant should be clear favourite. Bet 5 - Sell Nick Dougherty over John Rollins 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -28, Profit 8.4 Pts Dougherty got a lot of plaudits for his performance at the US Open and rightly so, but his record since then reads 26/25/42/cut and his certainly not in the form coming into this week that he had shown prior to the last US major. Rollins is a bit hit and miss just now, finishing 30th last week which was a good result in the company and 5th at the Buick in July. However, 2 missed cuts are in between those results at Carnoustie and Canada. All in all though, Rollins shouldn't be the underdog. Bet 6 - Sell Paul Casey over Lucas Glover 18H MB at 1 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Profit 5.1 Pts Glover has finished 10/12/11/12 in his last 4 US starts and with Casey very much hit and miss, I would suggest getting with the home player in this match. H2H's show a 5-2-2 tournament lead for Casey but he has won only 1 of 9 R1 matches. His record in the States this year is good but he can throw in some high ones. In 24 competitive rounds he has shot 76 (four times), 77 (twice), 78 (twice) and a 79 even although his record in those 6 events is 9/10/cut/31/10/51. Bet 7 - Buy Stewart Cink over Colin Montgomerie 18H MB at 4.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Loss 1.35 Pts Monty is talking a good game in the press but reports suggest he is struggling with the intense heat more than most and may continue his current majors run of 5 missed cuts in a row. Cink has finished in the Top 6 in 4 of his last 8 starts and his H2H record over Monty in the last 2 seasons reads 8-1 to Cink with his only defeat coming last week at Bridgestone where a 79 in R1 put him out of it straight away. He came back in R2 shooting 67 but still finished 4 shots behind Monty. In R1 matches, where Cink has won 6 of the 9, the average M/U reads 11, even including last week's theoretical MU of -34. Bet 8 - Sell Phil Mickelson over David Toms 18H MB at 4.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Profit 5.84 Pts We don't quite know the extent of Mickelson's injury from week to week, but what we do know via research is that in their last 10 common events, Toms leads 5-4-2 in events and 6-4-1 in 18H matches with an average MU of -5.6, a full 10pts difference from the available price today. There is definitely value here opposing Mickelson, especially when you consider that Mickelson has missed his last 2 PGA Tour cuts and that Toms hasn't missed one since August 2006. R2 Bet 9 - Buy Graeme Storm FP at 26 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 63.5, Profit 22.5 Pts Even Graeme Storm did not know where that 65 came from last night, and after finishes of 45/39/cut/cut/69 in his last 5 starts I don't blame him. To be 2 ahead of Daly and realistically, with all due respect to Big John, 3 ahead of the chasing pack, it's about whether he can produce 3 good scores from here on in. If he does that we lose, and Storm picks up his biggest ever cheque. However, better players than Storm shot in the 80s on this course yesterday and making allowance for the expected scores of Storm and the main players in this event from here on would see him struggle to beat 26th place. |