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Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

   

Sony Open

Spread Betting News (Sporting Index)

 Please note that this season, all four firms will be betting to the same FP rules, which is the amendment that Sporting Index had gone out on their own with during 2006.
 
For bets on finishing positions, the position of a player who misses the cut will be deemed the number of players who make the first official cut in tournament + 1, unless stated otherwise. If a player tees off but subsequently misses the cut, withdraws or is disqualified, his finishing position will make up at the number of players who make the first official cut in tournament + 1. Part-played rounds do not count.

Bets 9. Wins 6, Losses 3. Profit 53.76 Pts

R1

Bet 1 - Buy Peter Lonard over Aaron Baddeley 18H MB at 1.5 with
Spreadex for 0.3 PtsM/U 0, Loss 0.45 Pts
Lonard holds a 8-6-3 lead on R1 18H bets in 2006 and has a slightly better scoring average in that time and should possibly be nearer the 1-4 price that Sporting Index have offered.

Bet 2 - Sell Eric Axley over John Rollins 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -28, Profit 8.4 Pts
We opposed Axley in R1 with Will Mackenzie last week as Axley had a better record over 4 rounds but was easily beaten on Thursday's only. We will play this again this week as Axley holds a 11-7 tournament lead over Rollins but is down 13-6 on R1 scoring alone. Axley does have some good numbers during 06' but it is fairly plain in the stats that he is a particularly slow starter.

Bet 3 - Sell Chad Campbell over Rod Pampling 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 25, Loss 7.5 Pts
Difference of opinion here as others make Pampling favourite. H2H's last year seen Pampling win 13-9 and he finished 11 strokes ahead of Campbell last week.

Bet 4 - Sell Bubba Watson over Daisuke Maruyama 18H MB at 2 with
Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U -25, Profit 8.1 Pts
Watson is a heavy favourite based on a fourth place finish here last year but over the season there was virtually nothing between them with 17 rounds shared 8-8-1 in R1 and the Japanese player slightly ahead in all rounds at 24-22-5. This match-up should arguably be a "choice" price.

Bet 5 - Buy J. B. Holmes FP at 40 with
Cantor Spreadfair for 0.6 Pts M/U 74, Profit 19.38 Pts
Holmes was 10th here last year which signalled his arrival  on the PGA stage. After this he won in Phoenix but after that he only achieved one further top 20 in 20 starts. This year he started well again, placing in the Mercedes, so it suggests he is an early season player. However between the 10th and 1st last year was a withdrawal and a 28th place. It also has to be noted that he WD 3 times last year. His average overall was 50 and even allowing for course and current form, 40 is too low.

Bet 6 - Buy Joe Durant FP at 41 with
IG Sport for 0.6 pts M/U 74, Profit 19.8 Pts
Durant finished the year with five events in which his worst position was 6th. However, some sad personal news affected him at Christmas and although he has went straight back into work last week, he could only manage 16th. Last year he was 53rd here and only beat this quote once in his first ten events of the season.

Bet 7 - Sell Shaun Micheel over Fred Funk 18H MB at -1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Loss 0.45 Pts
Funk leads Micheel 11-4 in R1 matches and 11-7 overall in 2006 so should be supported here. Course form shows Micheel averaging 50th place in 7 starts and Funk averaging 32 in 8. This is easily the best bet of the R1 matches.

Bet 8 - Sell Jerry Kelly over Steve Stricker 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Profit 4.8 Pts
Final bet for R1 on Stricker who leads Kelly 9-4 in events in 2006 and the reason for Kelly being favourite must be past form here where Kelly has 4 top 10's in 8 starts with Stricker offering a 14th place in only two starts. Given Stricker's improvement in 06' (over 1 stroke better scoring average in 06' compared to the year before), getting with him on no handicap is good value.

R3

Bet 9 - Buy Luke Donald over Trevor Immelman 72H MB at 8.2 with
IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 11, Profit 1.68 Pts
Donald leads Immelman by 8 currently, it isn't a coincidence that he has taken 7 less putts over the two days. Immelman's putting ability left him during the Mercedes when he could easily have won had he putted ok. This week 32 and 29 putts have kept him out of the first page of the leaderboard when his other stats have been the equal of everyone else. This offer from IG is based on Donald covering a 0.2 stoke handicap for the remainder of the weekend and the chances of Donald doing this is probably greater than the price implies.