1-2; -0.50pts

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

David Toms to win 16/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places]  3rd
With the change of greens from bentgrass to bermudagrass (newly laid last year) and the use of zoysia grass on the fairways, this is a week when course experience should be very important. A good record in this event is also a consideration when looking at players' motivations when the U.S. Open is next week. So, with a cumulative 65-under-par record over the last 5 years and finishing positions of 4th, 1st, 1st, 2nd and 10th over that time period, Toms should be the ideal candidate for this title. It is a par-70 with just two par-5s so his strength/driving distance issues will not be such a concern this week and he did improve his leaderboard position with every round at Colonial two weeks ago when finishing 18th; he really should be no worse than top-10 this week.

Fredrik Jacobson to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and ToteSport  17th
Jacobson is another with a very good record around this course - he finished 3rd, 5th and 6th from 2003 to 2005 - and is coming off a top-5 finish last week at the Memorial Tournament. He does miss a lot of cuts, but it's the same payout on the play whether he finishes 6th or 106th so that is not an concern. What is an issue, though, is the fact that he has played in each of the last eight weeks. Anything more than four weeks in a row would be enough reason to swerve a player, but he had been absent for almost eight months with a wrist injury (and it is clearly mended with such a schedule) and he had been rested at the weekend in each of previous three events before the Memorial. I was expecting 33/1, so I'll take this price on a player who has a history of stringing high finishes together.

Camilo Villegas to win 66/1 e.w. available generally  46th
And I was certainly expecting no more than 40/1 on Villegas. He has course experience with a 16th place finish last year (having been 5th at the cut) and was 3rd in neighbouring Georgia only three weeks ago. And to confirm his good form, he qualified for the U.S. Open with four shots to spare at the most competitive site on Monday. That momentum and confidence should make him a better prospect for at least a top-5 finish than these odds suggest.