Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Summary: Bets 7, Wins 4, Losses 3. Profit 12 Pts

Bet 1 - Buy Scott Verplank FP at 42 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 8, Loss 20.4 Pts
We opposed Verplank last week and he produced his first top 10 of the season outside Texas, so although he now has two Top 10's in a row it is still only his 3rd non Texas Top 20 of the season and I still feel there is value at IG's price. Verplank has missed 3 of his last 5 US Open cuts and his best performances in the last 9 years is 10th in 03' in Illinois and 17th at Pinehurst in 99' His average overall in those 9 years is 46. I would pitch him mid 40's so 42 in what could be a tough week if you don't carry some luck as well as good play is value.

Bet 2 - Buy Retief Goosen FP at 32 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 64, Profit 19.2 Pts
Goosen's last 11 starts on this tour from this event a year ago has resulted in just three Top 25's. This from 11 events as diverse in quality as the US Open through to The International. His average in that time is 38 and of course with this being a major you would expect a price at least in that region. However, it's the US Open and there seems to be an expectation now that Goosen performs in this event, no matter what form he has coming into it (43/28/30 last 3 starts). In 9 starts though in this major, he has missed 4 cuts as well as finishing 11th, 12th and winning twice. This all equates to an average FP of 37 in an event where Top 60 and ties make the weekend but all those within 10 shots of the leader also get in. With Goosen in his poorest run of form since that first US Open win in 2001 (now 10th in the World Rankings), he has to be traded at this price which should arguably be 3-4 points higher.

Bet 3 - Sell Sergio Garcia over Pablo Martin 18H MB at 11 with IG Sport for 0.3 Pts. M/U -34, Profit 13.5 Pts
Garcia faces the pretender to his crown of the top Spanish golf player with Martin fresh from gaining a few top dollar contracts in the last few weeks after being the first amateur to win on the European tour. This is a massive step up in class though but he is a college player in this country and his first tour appearance, last week, resulted in a 75 and 71 to miss out, just, on the weekend. Garcia only beat him by a stroke a round though and although Garcia should be a very heavy favourite it possibly shouldn't be into double figures.

Bet 4 - Sell Ken Duke over Sam Walker 18H MB at 12 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 22, Loss 3 Pts
Sam Walker qualified for this from the US qualifier played at Walton Heath and it was a bit of a surprise as he has had a very poor season to date. In 13 starts he has missed 11 cuts and although he would be a very short price to miss his 12th this week I don't think the price offered isn't worth taking on. The current champion and World top 10 player Geoff Ogilvy faces Richie Ramsey, the US Amateur champion from Scotland and is priced only 1pt higher at one firm. This shows that the price for this match, where Duke's current form reads 37/cut/51/55 in the 4 starts since his excellent spring run, is just too high.

Bet 5 - Sell Paul Casey over Trevor Immelman 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U -22, Profit 6.6 Pts
H2H's show the scores for the last 12 months sitting at 5-4 in events and 5-2-2 in R1 scoring in Immelman's favour. Casey seems to be getting prices recently that don't portray past results and can only be based on Top 10's at the two of the previous big events this year, the Masters and the WGC CA. US Open form is reliable and neither player has any sort of form in this event. Therefore we are left to look at why Casey is favourite and it is purely down to current form. Immelman, though has been cut down by illness and 14th at Wachovia and 31st at Memorial two weeks ago is as good as it gets but he will be fully over the illness now and should arguably be the favourite here, not the underdog.

R2

Bet 6 - Buy Tim Clark FP at 35 with IG Sport for 0.6 Pts M/U 18, Loss 10.2 Pts
Clark shot 72 yesterday on a day when 72 was good enough to be inside the Top 30. However, with an afternoon tee time today and a cut line of Top 60 + those within 10 of the lead, I would pitch his FP a bit higher. He has suffered from injury at the start of the year and therefore has only played 8 events in which a 12th and 13th are his best efforts. He was 92nd in greens hit yesterday which led to being 7th in putts made but he will have to hit more greens for the rest of the week to contend.

R4

Bet 7 - Sell Justin Rose over Bubba Watson 18H MB at 5 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Profit 6.3 Pts
This quote seems to reflect what happened on the 9th hole last night with Watson more than any other stats, scores or form. I do think Rose should be favourite but bar that loss of concentration last night Watson played well and was only +1 for the other 17 holes. If this was a R1 pairing i'd expect the price to be nearer 2-5 and Rose's record in R4 when in contention isn't too hot. In events where he has been within 4 shots of the lead after R3, he has finished in a poorer position in 10 of those 11 events.

Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds: Spreads

U.S. Open