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PICKS:
Outright
Betfair
Matchups
18H Matchups
Spreads
STATS: Tour Event In-Running
PROFILES: Players Event
Live Scoring
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Summary: 4 Bets, 2 Wins, 2 Losses. Loss 9.06 Pts Bet 1 - Sell Retief Goosen over Zach Johnson 72H MB at 2.85 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts M/U 12, Loss 5.49 Pts It would be easy to put Johnson down as a 2nd level golfer who just came good at the right time, but in H2H's with Goosen over a year he leads 8-5 in strokeplay events, 25-19 in rounds and has won the last two match-ups. A positive for this bet is the way Johnson came out the next week at the Heritage and surprised everyone (including of course hurting our FP buy) by finishing well inside the Top 10. It could be argued that these players may be heading if different directions. Bet 2 - Sell Tiger Woods over Jim Furyk 72H MB at 5.05 with Sporting Index for 0.6 Pts
M/U 24, Loss 11.37 Pts
H2H's here have a 9-1 annual lead for Woods but with Furyk making every one of those cuts the average is only 3. Furyk in those 8 defeats averaged 13th place and has 2 year form here of 2nd and 1st. Woods has finished 11th and 3rd in that time and all in all this price is probably over a stroke too high. Bet 3 - Sell Retief Goosen over Ted Purdy 18H MB at 9 with Spreadex for 0.3 Pts M/U -16, Profit 7.5 Pts Opposing Goosen again as his form over the last calendar year really has been quite poor. The stats for this matchup confirm this as his H2H record over Purdy reads 6-4 with an average R1 M/U of 7. Goosen's full record in that time is 3 Top 10's, 2 missed cuts and an average FP in the high 30s which doesn't equate to a 9-12 quote against a player of Purdy's standard. R2 Bet 4 - Sell Joey Sindelar over Ryan Moore 18H MB at 1 with Sporting Index for 0.3 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.3 Pts It's the age old issue in R2 betting, how much leverage to give to the scores in R1. Yesterday, Moore was considered 0-3 favourite even allowing for the fact Sindelar won here 3 years ago. The reason he was favourite was because he has outscored Sindelar in 15 of 20 events over the last year with two of them being recent events in Hilton Head and New Orleans. The price is 1-4 today as Sindelar took 5 fewer shots yesterday to get round but I would argue that today's price gives too much allowance for the current scores.
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