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Buy Charles Howell FP at 44 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 8.5, Loss 17.75 Pts After an impressive 6th here in 01' Howell missed the cut in 02' and didnt come back til' 06' when he missed the cut again. He missed the cut last week at Sawgrass and his 08' record is nowhere near as good as his Spring record in 07, with only 2 Top 20 finishes in 12 full field events, (in 07' it was 5 including a win and two seconds). This is a particularly poor field this week but 44 is too low for Howell, based on all known info. Buy Jonathan Byrd FP at 40 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 4, Loss 18 Pts Byrd has a great record round here with a 6th and 9th the last two years, but his other 2 starts results in a 32nd place and a missed cut. His immediate form shows one Top 30 since March and his price is reflecting course form far greater than it should. Byrd has a 40% cut miss record which can't be ignored and he should arguably be slightly higher than his current quote. Buy Ryuji Imada FP at 40 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 1, Loss 19.5 pts Imada was 2nd here last year and the most popular picks this week amongst the tipsters seem to be on players with good course form, so this leads to value prices on some of these players. His other starts here also include a 10th and 15th so this of course will make him a popular pick. This has been factored into the quote though and current form of 4 missed cuts out of 5 have been slightly overlooked. Imada also misses 2 out of every 5 cuts on this tour so his price should reflect this more than it does. Sell Zach Johnson over Paul Goydos R1 18H MB at 6.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Loss 3.87 Pts A player who only wins in Georgia and is a past winner on the course against a player who should have won last week but didn't. It was always going to mean a price that didn't reflect their true chances. Johnson should win this match up but in 13 previous R1 matchups over 12 months the average M/U is less than 6 and their most immediate "meeting" sees Goydos win R1 by 8 shots and by 16 by the time Johnson had missed the cut. R2 Buy Nick O'Hern FP at 32 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 22, Loss 5 Pts We have opposed 3 players so far with good course form, which hasn't started too brightly for us, but the 3 prices that appeal today are on players who have started well but have little course, or for that matter, current form to justify where yesterday's round came from. O'Hern shot 70/77 in his one visit here two years ago and recent form shows three missed cuts and a 32nd and 40th finish in his last 5 starts. Buy D.J. Trahan FP at 37 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 27, Loss 5 pts 17th at the Heritage is Trahan's only half decent finish recently with 49th the next best in his last 5 starts. At Sugarloaf, Trahan has shot 80 in his first start (WD), 69/76 to miss the cut in 2006, and 43rd when playing all 4 days last year albeit failing to break 70 in any of the 4 days. A repeat of current or course form will see him fall down the leaderboard. Buy Brian Davis FP at 36 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 53, Profit 8.5 Pts Davis has the best form of the three round here but that wouldn't be too difficult, and 21st and a WD is nothing to shout about. Recently, though, Davis has played 12 of the last 15 weeks and must be in need of an extended rest. His results in that time have been fairly standard for him, a few missed cuts and finishes down the field with only one good finish (7th at Honda). In what looks like a putting contest this week, Davis is value at 36. 1-6 -60.62 pts (disastrous week, apologies) |
