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Buy Steve Lowery over Ryan Palmer R1 18H MB at 2 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts. M/U 37, Profit 8.31 Pts (after comm) Palmer started his year on the Nationwide tour in an event in Panama and was nearly last. That doesn't bode well for him on the bigger tour and certainly in 2007 his cut miss % was high at 53%, 22% higher than Lowery. H2H's are very similar but it is their immediate form which suggests we should get with Lowery, his 20th at the Sony far better than Palmer's cut miss at a lower level
Buy Kevin Na over Andres Romero R1 18H MB at 3 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts. M/U 16, Profit 3.09 Pts (after comm)
Wehad a double play in R1 last week against Romero, losing both, only for him to come out in R2 and lose by some way to the opponents we had supported the previous day. That's golf spread betting but a R2 78 and consequently, a missed cut for Romero, sticks out against four rounds for Na of 69,67,67,69 which gave him his 2nd Top 5 in 4 starts this year. My one worry with Na is that his results immediately following a week in contention are poor, highlighted recently by 66th place at the "Hope" just after placing in Hawaii. However, the numbers stack up in every other area to suggest he should be a heavier favourite here.
Sell Robert Gamez over Jeff Maggert R1 18H MB at 0 with Sporting IndexBetHiLo for 0.25Pts M/U -16, Profit 4 Pts A veteran's meeting here and preference is for Maggert who has nearly a stroke per round better average over the last year. Their course records are quite poor although Maggert does have a 2nd in 2004 and an average finish 5 places better than Gamez but generally their results are littered with missed cuts. H2Hs show a 12-7 lead for Maggert over the last year and although Gamez has better current form, 16th at the Bob Hope, Maggert misses 10% less cuts than Gamez and is value at 0.
R2
Buy Tim Herron FP at 34 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts. M/U 38, Profit 2 Pts Herron played at Pebble Beach yesterday which turned out to be the easiest course on the day, averaging nearly a stroke lower than Spyglass. Given that his form here recently is so poor and that the cut line would fall only 3 strokes below where he currently sits, he is possibly too low at his price this morning.
Sell Peter Jacobsen over Craig Stadler R2 18H MB at 0 with Sporting IndexBetHiLo for 0.25Pts M/U 25, Loss 6.25 Pts Let's treat this as a matchup between two Champions Tour players and forget the fact they are playing a PGA event. In 11 H2Hs over the last year, Stadler leads 8-3 and is probably only outsider on the basis Jacobsen took 1 less shot yesterday. Stadler shot the best score in 20 of the 32 rounds in that sample and tied in 6 of the others. Course form shows Stadler with a win and 2nd on the Seniors tour here and 2 Top 5's in this event in the late 90's. Jacobsen has no better than 9th (Seniors) and 14th (AT&T) in the same events.