8-6; +1.19pts 

Round 1 plays (1pt):

Brandt Snedeker to beat Steve Flesch -135 @ Pinnacle  WON by 2
Just a huge difference in current form, course form and even form in Florida between these two players, e.g. it has been 5 years and 25 attempts since Flesch last had a top-25 finish in this State; Snedeker has achieved it three times in the last year, including this event

Paul Casey to beat Martin Kaymer -125 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 4
Opposing Kaymer whose only previous start in North America resulted in a first-round exit in the WGC World Matchplay. Casey tees off in the opening group and will be looking to match his opening 64 of last year

Geoff Ogilvy to beat Davis Love -149 @ Unibet  WON by 3
Geoff Ogilvy to beat Charles Howell -119 @ Pinnacle  TIED
Ogilvy started the year with three missed cuts, but that can easily be excused with the birth of his son in January. He looks to be nearing his previous form with a top-10 finish last week and should have enough to beat Howell whose finishing positions have been worsening all year. Also value at the lower odds against Love as Ogilvy's head-to-head recoard against him is very impressive: over the last 12 months, he leads Love 15-1-0 h2h in the 1st round

Ben Curtis to beat Andres Romero -115 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 5
Three missed cuts and a 2nd-round exit in the WGC World Matchplay is Romero's record this year. Curtis may not be in the best of form, but it hasn't stopped him finishing 20th and 4th in the last two years here

Round 2 plays (1pt):

Fred Couples to beat Richard Sterne -105 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 2
I don't often back the leader and the fact that it has been 5 years since Couples was last in this position may be a warning, but I don't see him struggling with the pressure today. And if there is another 3/4 shot advantage to the afternoon players, that will help him against Sterne who had always struggled on American courses

Ben Crane to beat John Senden -115 @ Bet365  WON by 4
Senden is a player to back when coming off a poor 1st round, but not generally - Crane leads him 4-1-0 h2h in the 2nd round this year in his impressive return from last year's back injury worries

Lucas Glover to beat Alex Cejka -111 @ Unibet  LOST by 5
Cejka has been in the top-10 after 18 holes six times in the last three years, but he has never finished the round closer to the lead. On one occasion (2005 Honda Classic) he has missed the cut from this position and this year, he fell from 5th to 23rd after the 2nd round of the Northern Trust Open. Glover is much dependable in this situation

Nathan Green to beat Ian Poulter +100 @ Carib  LOST by 1
A good price to oppose Poulter who has missed his three previous cuts here, always shot over-par and who averages 75.6 around the Bay Hill course. He is only using this as preparation for next week's WGC event, so Green should be far greater motivated to make the cut

Jim Furyk to beat Stuart Appleby -110 @ Five Dimes  WON by 7
Appleby is very hit-and-miss in this event: two runners-up finishes in 12 appearances, but no other finishes in the top-35 and he averages 72.4 around this par-70 course. He is certainly capable of bouncing back today, but concentrating on preparing for the WGC event next week may become a factor if some early round aggression doesn't provide good results. Furyk lies 7th for his best start since his back problems of last August

Round 3 plays (1pt):

Tom Pernice to beat Camilo Villegas -102 @ Five Dimes  WON by 5
I don't make Villegas the favourite in this match. Pernice is coming off a top-10 finish last week, he has a top-10 finish on this course in this last two years whereas Villegas has finished 59th and 61st and he also has a 6-1-1 h2h lead over him in the 3rd round over the last 12 months

Vaughn Taylor to beat Nick Watney -125 @ Carib [-128 @ Five Dimes]  LOST by 2
Both in very good positions at the cut, but I'm expecting Taylor to maintain that position as he did last year when finishing 3rd (Watney has a poor history on this course). Plus, they have both been in these exact positions already this year and responded very differently in the 3rd round: Taylor was 4 shots off the lead and shot 71 in the Northern Trust Open to remain 4 shots back; Watney was 5 shots off the lead and shot 77 in the PODS Championship to fall to 11 shots back and 62nd place

Sergio Garcia to beat Niclas Fasth -127 @ Pinnacle  TIED
Attractive odds when Garcia is a best-price -121 with ties lose. Maybe the state of the greens are helping Garcia this week, but he ranks 2nd in scrambling over the two rounds. And for all his putting woes, he is still a good player to back when in contention. He has started the 3rd round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10 on 29 occasions, finished the round outside the top-10 only seven times and averaged 69.8 in the 3rd round. In terms of only needing to beat Fasth today, his Swedish opponent has never shot a lower 3rd round than him on the PGA Tour

Round 4 plays (1pt):

Bart Bryant to beat Sean O'Hair -105 @ Five Dimes  * PRICE UPDATE: +110 @ Paddy Power *  WON by 2
Bart Bryant to beat Bubba Watson -130 @ Unibet and Carib  WON by 5
Bart Bryant to beat Hunter Mahan -115 @ Bet365  WON by 2
Not a deliberate intention to back only one player in this round, but these were the three plays that had the greatest edge given by my calculation of probabilities and those given by the odds and I don't see any reason to drop any of these 'system plays'. Bryant has the ideal draw for the tournament leader in that he is in the penultimate group and he is not paired with Tiger Woods (like O'Hair ... so I can't see any reason for O'Hair being the favourite in that match). Let's look at Bryant's record when leading a PGA Tour event with one round to play: in the 2004 Texas Open, he held a 3-shot lead over Hunter Mahan and shot 67 to win by 3 shots; in the 2005 Memorial Tournament, he shared the lead with David Toms, Fred Couples and Jeff Sluman (Tiger Woods was 4 shots back), shot 68 and won by one shot; in the 2005 Tour Championship, he held a 3-shot lead over Retief Goosen (Tiger Woods was a shot further back), shot 67 and won by six shots. Not only did he win on all three occasions, but his lead over the field was never reduced and in two of those three occasions, Tiger Woods was very much in contention and his lead over Woods was also never reduced after the 4th round. Compare that to O'Hair - he has finished 2nd (2005 Byron Nelson Championship) and 11th (2007 Players Championship) when holding the 3rd round lead - and Watson - he finished 2nd (2007 Houston Open) despite holding a 3-shot lead - and there is no compaison to be made. Mahan may pose the bigger threat, but given that his four previous appearances on this course have yielded finishes of 62nd, mc, 59th, mc, whereas Bryant has finished 8th, 20th and 18th, I'm much more confident that Bryant's form this week will continue for another day on this course