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Buy Lee Westwood FP at 40 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 18.5, Loss 10.75 Pts Westwood shot 74,78 in his only US start of the year and that follows on from previous US tour form over 3 years of two Top 5's (one of them here) and no other Top 25 finish in 16 starts. His overall average is 48 in that time and he is arguably being priced on non US current form which admittedly is excellent. With such a good field this week, 17 of the World Top 25 and 17 of the current Top 25 on the US Money List, it will be the best field that Westwood will have faced in recent times and at 40 he is arguably 3-4 points too low. His course form shows the 5th place in 06 and three other Top 20's in 9 starts with an average FP right on the buy price this week. Sell Colin Montgomerie over Brian Davis 18H R1 MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 19, Loss 4.75 Pts Monty is a superior player to Davis but on this tour Davis is showing some form this year, something Monty has struggled to do in the 10 odd years he has been coming across. Davis's one year average score is better than Montgomerie's and amongst a number of missed cuts has a 7th at the Honda two weeks ago. Montgomerie's last Top 10 in the States was in the US Open in 06 and since then has not finished in the Top 40 in 6 starts. Sell Niclas Fasth over Bill Haas 18H R1 MB at 0 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 0 An average FP of 44 in 9 PGA starts is significantly poorer than Haas's 37 albeit in slightly inferior events overall. Their recent scoring records suggest Haas is in slightly better form and whereas this wouldn't be a great bet outside the States, that's where the match is but it is course form that tips the balance. It's Haas's first start at Bay Hill but in 14 rounds in 4 years Fasth has only broken 70 twice. Sell Chad Campbell over Kenny Perry 18H R1 MB at 0 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 3.25 Pts Perry leads Campbell 9-6-2 in events and 9-7-1 in R1 matches over the last year. Their course records show both having a win here in the last few years but in 5 events Perry leads 3-2 and also 3-2 on R1 scoring. For all these close results though Perry averages a half stroke less over the last year and Perry should arguably be the favourite here not Campbell. Sell Alex Cejka over Lucas Glover 18H R1 MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 3.25 Pts Glover leads Cejka 7-5-2 in R1 Matches and 7-3-3 in events over the last year and scoring averages show that Glover finishes 10 places higher on average on this tour so Cejka seems a false favourite here. Course form shows 38/46/cut for Cejka and 17th in one start for Glover so another reason to support the home player. R2 Buy Tom Lehman FP at 34 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 10.5 Loss 11.75 Pts Impressive round from Lehman yesterday but 34 is low for a player who has missed his last two cuts and who hasn't beaten 34 in his last 11 starts. With this being a quality field Lehman is going to have to play well above his average performance just to beat 34 this week and will have to play exceptionally well for another 3 rounds to seriously hurt us in this bet. Of course, the opposite could happen and he could fall away tamely. Spread betting of course tries to place a middle estimate on all possibilities and that mid point is arguably much nearer 40. Sell Colin Montgomerie over Brian Davis 18H R1 MB at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -31, Profit 8.25 Pts Monty won yesterday by 3 and the handicap issued in todays prices is 2pts but the reasoning for yesterday still applies, and it was a poor performance by Davis rather than Monty over-performing on past US form that done us yesterday. Even allowing for yesterday's loss, this is arguably better value than the 0 yesterday. Buy Tim Clark FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 35.5, Profit 0.75 Pts If Clark doesnt collapse today it will be the first cut he has made in 08, and in the Matchplay he went out on Day 1. Signs yesterday of course that there is an improvement in his game but one good (not great) round doesn't put away the doubts that he is in competitive form and with course form of 56th in his only start, he should be higher than 34. Buy Lee Westwood FP at 21 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 18.5, Loss 1.25 Pts Playing Westwood again gives a nett 1pt Buy at 29.5 and that seems fair given the status of the Leaderboard as it is at the moment. Buy Alex Cejka FP at 30 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 10.5 Loss 9.75 Pts Reasons for opposing Cejka are highlighted in the write up for the R1 match with Glover, but like Lehman, Cejka's form both course and current suggests 30 is too low in such a strong field with 3 rounds to go. Sell Brian Gay over Jerry Kelly 18H R2 MB at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.75 Pts This is one of these wonderful R2 conundrums. Gay shot 8 shots less than Kelly yesterday and Kelly is effectively already out of the tournament. However, yesterday Kelly was quoted 1-4 on the basis that he had three Top 10's in his last 5 starts on this course whereas Gay had finished no better than 26th in 7 attempts. If we trust Kelly will make every effort to play to his best then this is a great bet. 11 Bets, Wins 3, Losses 7, P&L -32 Pts. |
