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Sell Ernie Els over Trevor Immelman 18H R1 MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 1.75 Pts Head to head sees a 7-7 tie in R1 matches and a slight lead overall for Els so the price is heavily based on Els' 3rd place on Sunday, 11 strokes in total better than Immelman. Long term form suggests the price is fairer around 4-7. Sell Vijay Singh over Mike Weir 18H R1 MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 4.5 Pts Sell Sergio Garcia over Mike Weir 18H R1 MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.25 Pts A price based on Singh's run of two wins in a row and Garcia's two 2nd's and a 5th in his last 3 starts but excellent those perfomances are, Weir is also in a bit of form as well. 2nd last week to Singh and 7th in the first play off event means these are by a long stretch the most in form players at the moment, but the gap possibly doesn't deserve to be as high as 5 and 4 between Weir and his opponents. Like Els/Immelman above, Singh and Garcia are both tied with Weir on R1 matches over 12 months and like Els come out on top in the long run, but we are only interested in tomorrow's opening 18 holes and evidence suggests Immelman and Weir start a little better than what they eventually achieve over the full four days. Sell Angel Cabrera over Rory Sabbatini 18H R1 MB at 1 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 19, Loss 4.5 Pts Sell Angel Cabrera over Tommy Armour 18H R1 MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts m/U 16, Loss 2.75 Pts Another double play, this time opposing the favourite in his 3 ball with both opponents. A new course means that we have to examine long term and current form only and Cabrera really hasn't performed all that well on this tour historically. He is not too far off missing 1 in every 2 cuts and has only hit 7% of top 10 finishes which is way behind Sabbatini's 27% and even slightly behind Armour. 1-4-0 -6.75 Pts |
